ADB maintains Vietnam’s economic growth at 6% in 2024, 6.2% in 2025

Vietnam’s economic growth can reach 6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025, following a 6.4% expansion in the first half of 2024, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in the July edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

The forecast is unchanged from the April edition. Vietnam’s figures are among the highest in Asia, only below India with 7% for 2024 and 7.2% for 2025.

Growth is supported by the strong recovery of both imports and exports and the revival of domestic demand as monetary policy remained accommodative, the bank noted.

Growth is also supported by fiscal measures such as the continued 2% reduction in value-added tax and efforts to better implement public investment, it added.

External demand for major electronics exports fueled industrial production, according to the ADB, but “subdued global economic prospects leave some uncertainty”.

Reviewing the continent's development, the lender said East Asia dominates high-technology goods production and other economies are also benefiting from the current semiconductor boom. “These include the Philippines and Vietnam, which specialize in integrated circuit packaging and electronics assembly,” according to the ADB.

Regarding inflation, the ADB forecast Vietnam’s figures at 4% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, below the Pacific’s average of 4.3% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.

In July, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said Vietnam will strive to achieve a GDP growth of 6.5-7% in Q3/2024. The 7% goal is higher than the National Assembly’s target of 6-6.5% for the whole year.

Also in July, Singapore’s leading bank UOB said it kept its GDP growth projection for Vietnam unchanged at 6% for this year, although the Q2 performance exceeded the bank’s and market expectations.

In a June 20 release, S&P Global said following Vietnam’s relatively lackluster GDP growth of 5.05% in 2023, it expects healthier global demand conditions to support an acceleration to 5.8% in 2024.

The credit rating agency anticipates the country’s GDP growth at 6.7% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 6.7% in 2027.

Vietnam’s economic expansion reached 6.93% in Q2/2024, according to its General Statistics Office.