Business confidence climbs as reforms gain traction amid global headwinds: EuroCham Vietnam

EuroCham Vietnam's newly-released Q3 Business Confidence Index (BCI) editition shows a renewed surge of optimism among European firms operating in the country.

The index climbed to 66.5, surpassing pre-tariffs level and reaching its highest in three years – showcasing resilience and adaptability amid global headwinds and evolving U.S. tariff pressures.

“This steady confidence is particularly striking in a world defined by volatility and uncertainty – where the ripple effects of geopolitics, technological shifts, and climate change are rewriting trade and investment strategies across continents,” remarked EuroCham chairman Bruno Jaspaert.

The BCI Q3 2025 report, conducted by Decision Lab, goes beyond macroeconomic sentiment to capture structural shifts quietly reshaping Vietnam’s business environment: forward-looking reforms in visa and work permit policies, growing momentum for green investment, and the ongoing digitalisation of administrative procedures.

Together, these changes reflect how European investors perceive Vietnam’s future: full of promise, yet not without friction, EuroCham stated in a press release.

Navigating global and domestic disruption

The shifting trade landscape is beginning to leave its mark. As the U.S. implements new tariff measures and global supply chains realign, 31% of surveyed businesses reported a net negative impact on their financial performance – a sizable adjustment compared to 15% in Q2/2025.

Interestingly, the share of firms seeing a net positive impact also followed a similar trend, rising to 9% from 5% in Q2, reflecting the potential upside for companies able to reposition themselves amid global trade re-routing.

Despite these adjustments, relocation remains limited: only 3% are considering moving operations out of Vietnam, while another 3% are considering relocating into or within the country, reaffirming Vietnam’s reputation as a resilient and reliable base for production and investment.

While clarity around U.S. “transshipment” rules and future trade deals remains limited, most firms report no major change to their investment plans or operations. Regulatory compliance, market dynamics, and sourcing strategies have become “slightly more challenging,” but few see these headwinds as strong enough to alter their long-term commitment to Vietnam.

“The pressures are now materializing, but they remain proportionate to our earlier findings. What’s remarkable is the leap in sentiment: 80% of respondents are optimistic about their prospects over the next five years, and 76% would recommend Vietnam as an investment destination," said chairman Jaspaert.

"It affirms that Vietnam’s structural story still holds strong. The recent upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market classification by FTSE Russell – from Frontier to Secondary Emerging Market status – underwrites the findings of our BCI survey. It signals growing confidence from international investors and recognizes Vietnam's rising importance as an investment destination for future business," he added.

This renewed confidence aligns with Vietnam’s broader economic ambitions. Nearly half of respondents (42%) believe that Vietnam will reach its ambitious GDP growth target of 8.3-8.5% for 2025, while 23% remain neutral and 35% express some reservations. "The General Statistics Office’s most recent data – reporting GDP in Q3 increased by 8.23% year-on-year – underscores Vietnam’s robust momentum."

Decision Lab CEO Thue Quist Thomsen noted: “While neutrality still dominates in the short-term outlook, sentiment becomes distinctly more positive when firms discuss the future. Notably, 68% expect economic stabilisation and improvement in the next quarter, up 18 percentage points since Q2 2025 – a clear indication that businesses are expecting to close the year on a stronger footing.”

The Q3/2025 BCI ultimately reaffirms Vietnam’s position as one of the most promising destinations for European investment in Asia. Yet, as the world grows more volatile and unpredictable, optimism must be anchored in continued reform and resilience, accoording to EuroCham.

Respondents consistently stress that Vietnam’s long-term competitiveness depends on regulatory predictability, consistency across provinces, and efficient administrative procedures.

Business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector continued to improve slightly in September amid a renewed expansion of new orders, according to S&P Global.

Output and purchasing activity also increased, but firms continued to lower their staffing levels. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was unchanged at 50.4 in September, signalling a further slight strengthening in the health of the sector.

Operating conditions have now improved in three consecutive months. Helping to support overall business conditions in September was a renewed increase in new orders following a slight fall in August. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal.