Business confidence reaches 5-year high: EuroCham

The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam's (EuroCham) Business Confidence Index (BCI) in Q4/2025 recorded its highest level in seven years, marking "a decisive shift in European business sentiment".

"Rising sharply to 80.0 points, the index signals a return to strong confidence after nearly a decade marked by disruption, volatility, and prolonged neutrality – even as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the international environment," EuroCham stated in a release on Tuesday.

Conducted by DXL Research and Consulting, the BCI captures European business sentiment across sectors and company sizes, providing a data-driven snapshot of how firms assess their operating environment, future prospects, and investment priorities.

"The results direct to a clear inflection point: confidence has not only rebounded, but re-entered strong growth territory, surpassing both pre-tariff and pre-Covid levels," said the release.

A decisive surge in optimism

The Q4/2025 BCI surged by 13.5 points to reach 80.0, ending a seven-year period of successive shocks, from the pandemic to global trade frictions, which repeatedly tested sentiment despite Vietnam’s solid economic fundamentals.

This rebound represents one of the strongest upward movements since the BCI’s launch in 2011 and reflects broad-based improvements across both current business conditions and future expectations.

In Q4/2025, 65% of respondents rated their current business situation as positive, while 69% expressed confidence in their outlook for Q1/2026.

Importantly, realized business conditions in Q4 exceeded expectations set in the previous quarter: while only 56% had anticipated positive conditions for Q4, when surveyed in Q3, the actual outcome reached 65%, pointing to better-than-expected performance.

This shift closely mirrors Vietnam’s macroeconomic trajectory. GDP growth in Q4/2025 reached 8.46% (the fastest quarterly expansion since Q4/2007) and exceeded projections from major international institutions.

“Our latest BCI confirms what many of us have felt intuitively,” said EuroCham chairman Bruno Jaspaert. “After years of hovering around the mid-line, reaching 80 tells us that confidence is now grounded in delivery – in factories running, orders returning, and investments being executed. We are seeing a structural shift where Vietnam is quickly transforming itself into a powerful growth engine, on track to rank among the top three economies in ASEAN.”

Vietnam as “the Place to Be”: Strong medium-term confidence

Beyond short-term gains, the Q4/2025 BCI reveals exceptionally strong confidence in Vietnam’s medium-term outlook. An overwhelming 88% of respondents expressed optimism about their organization’s prospects in Vietnam over the 2026-2030 period, including 31% who described themselves as “very optimistic”.

Chairman Jaspaert noted: “88 may sound like a lucky number, but it is much more than a fortune cookie: for our members, it is a rational one. Over the next five to seven years, provided it plays its cards right, Vietnam is destined to become the place to be, rising to enter a golden era of growth and transformation.”

This sentiment is reinforced by performance trends. 60% of companies reported improved business results in 2025 compared to 2024, while 82% expect further improvement in 2026, signalling confidence that current momentum will carry forward.

Vietnam’s appeal is further reinforced by strong peer endorsement. 87% of respondents say they are likely to recommend Vietnam as an investment destination to other foreign businesses, with confidence highest among larger employers with substantial on-the-ground operations.

Global trade tensions: Pressure felt, but resilience holds

While sentiment is improving, global trade tensions continue to weigh on business operations. In 2025, 42% of respondents reported a net negative impact from global trade tensions, compared with 24% who reported a positive impact, while 34% experienced little or no effect.

Smaller organizations are more likely to report negative impacts, highlighting their greater exposure to volatility and more limited buffers against external shocks. Larger companies, by contrast, appear more insulated.

Among the sources of global tension, U.S. tariff policies and trade disputes are cited most frequently, mentioned by 46% of respondents. The impact is felt primarily through demand shifts and revenue uncertainty (43%), followed by higher operating costs (16%), resulting in direct pressure on profitability.

In response, businesses have adopted a range of strategic adjustments. Cost optization is the most common response, pursued by 41% of firms, followed closely by increased use of technology, automation, and AI (35%).

A smaller share has diversified operations outside Vietnam (23%) or adjusted investment plans (19%) and expansion strategies (17%). Notably, 20% report making no operational changes, suggesting that for some, the impact of global tensions remains manageable or might fade out over time.

Importantly, despite these pressures, 56% of businesses report increased optimism about Vietnam as a place to operate or invest. “This is growth despite the global turbulence and the economic insecurity it involves,” added Jaspaert.

“After the so-called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcement, many questioned whether Vietnam would need to revise its 8% growth ambition. What we saw instead was economic resilience translating into results. Vietnam closed 2025 with GDP growth of 8.02% – not because headwinds were absent, but because fundamentals were strong enough to absorb them. Even those that want to debate the validity of the growth have to admit that these numbers are very strong, especially in view of the state of the global economy.”

Administrative Complexity: Still the Top Challenge, but Easing

Administrative complexity and regulatory inconsistency remain the most frequently cited business challenges, but the Q4 data shows meaningful improvement. 53% of respondents cite administrative burdens as a key concern – still high, but down 12 percentage points from Q3.

Other key frictions include unclear or inconsistently applied regulations (52%), followed by customs procedures and trade barriers, as well as visa and work permit constraints, each mentioned by around 33% of respondents.

These challenges translate most commonly into operational delays or uncertainty (59%), followed by higher administrative and compliance costs (31%) and resource diversion and productivity loss (20%).

Reform momentum: Early signals, mixed impacts

Recent reform initiatives are beginning to register, though their impact remains uneven. Resolution 68, issued in May 2025, is viewed positively in principle, but its practical effects are still emerging. Resolution 68 seeks to elevate the private sector through reduced bureaucracy, digitalized procedures, a shift from pre-approval to post-audit regulation, and stronger safeguards for fair competition.

Businesses broadly welcome this direction, while calling for clearer and more consistent implementation. By Q4/2025, 25% of respondents report some improvement in their operating environment, including 8% citing major improvements. However, 61% report no noticeable impact yet, reflecting the early stage of implementation, while 5% say it has introduced new challenges.

Digital reforms show similar patterns. The rollout of VNeID reflects progress alongside persistent challenges. By the end of 2025, 76% of respondents had completed enterprise registration, indicating broad adoption following its mandatory introduction in July 2025. However, around one in four businesses (24%) still face difficulties, highlighting the need for greater flexibility and targeted support for foreign-invested enterprises ahead of its full implementation.

Key drivers of future performance

Looking ahead, infrastructure development and public investment are widely seen as key growth drivers over the next 12-18 months, particularly for construction, trade, logistics, and consumer-facing sectors. Improved connectivity, transport capacity, and land access are expected to unlock long-term opportunities.

Equally critical are faster approvals and more predictable administrative processes. While global tensions are seen as manageable, unresolved regulatory inefficiencies are viewed as the more immediate constraint on growth.

Jaspaert observed: “The data tells us something very simple: reforms matter most when businesses feel them in their daily operations. Encouragingly, businesses acknowledge that both infrastructure development and administrative reform are areas where the government has stepped up efforts, including major infrastructure projects announced in December 2025 and ongoing resolutions aimed at streamlining and digitalising administrative processes. The direction is promising, and businesses now look for consistency, predictability, and pace in implementation.”

Strategic priorities for 2026: Growth with capability building

As confidence improves, European businesses are entering 2026 with a clear set of strategic priorities. Business development and portfolio diversification top the agenda, cited by 50% of respondents.

Talent remains a close second, with 45% prioritizing retention and recruitment, underscoring continued pressure on skilled labour availability and the importance of human capital in sustaining growth. At the same time, 41% of respondents highlight greater use of technology, automation, and AI, pointing to a parallel focus on efficiency, productivity, and long-term competitiveness.

European businesses recognize ongoing challenges, particularly administrative complexity and global volatility, but the data shows that Vietnam’s growth momentum, reform trajectory, and investment fundamentals continue to underpin strong optimism.

As businesses enter 2026, they do so with measured optimism, backed by numbers, reforms in motion, and a growing conviction that Vietnam is not only resilient – but increasingly central to their long-term growth strategies.

Vietnam’s economy grew 8.02% in 2025, its second-fastest pace in the past 15 years, driven mainly by services and industrial production, official data shows.

The economic expansion was second only to 2022’s 8.12% over the 2011-2025 period, the General Statistics Office (GSO), under the Ministry of Finance, reported on Monday.

The figure for Q4 was 8.46% year-on-year.