Climate change can cut Asia-Pacific GDP by 16.9%, Vietnam by 30%: ADB

By 2070, climate change under a high-end emissions scenario can cause a total loss of 16.9% of GDP across the Asia-Pacific region, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said in its “Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024.”

The ADB clarified the high-end emissions scenario is the one drafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the United Nations. The scenario is termed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, or SSP5-8.5.

The biggest losses are projected for Bangladesh with negative 30.5% in GDP, Vietnam with negative 30.2%, Indonesia with negative 26.8%, and India with 24.7%, according to the report.

Regarding sea-level rise as one of the sub-reasons for economic losses, the ADB estimated the loss of GDP in 2070 for the Asia-Pacific region to be 6.3% and for Vietnam to be 15%.

For Vietnam, other causes are effects on labor productivity from heatwave with negative 8.5%, more river-based floodings with negative 6.5%, natural resources with negative 4.1%.

Asia and the Pacific require an estimated $102 billion to $431 billion per year to adapt to global warming, said the report. This far exceeds the $34 billion of adaptation finance that was tracked going into the region in 2021–2022, it stressed.