Concerns over capital outflows arise as cash on the sidelines falls sharply in Vietnam stock market in Q4/2025

Cash waiting to be deployed into Vietnam’s stock market fell sharply in Q4/2025, sparking concerns that investors may be pulling money out of equities, although market experts say the move largely reflects seasonal and cyclical shifts rather than a sustained outflow.

According to a report by financial data provider FiinGroup, idle cash held by investors at securities firms dropped nearly 29% quarter-on-quarter to about VND98.7 trillion ($3.9 billion) in Q4/2025, after peaking in the previous quarter.

Data reviewed by The Investor showed that investor deposits at the five largest brokerage houses by market share on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) declined toward the end of Q4.

At VPS Securities, customer deposits stood at over VND16.81 trillion ($649.17 million) as of December 31, 2025, the lowest level recorded among the four quarters of the year. At SSI Securities, the figure was VND10.7 trillion, only higher than in Q1/2025 (over VND10.02 trillion).

The decline has raised concerns among some investors that capital may be exiting the Vietnamese stock market.

However, Pham Thi Mai Ngoc, head of Business Area 8 at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), said the fall in idle cash in Q4/2025 did not signal a withdrawal of funds from equities.

She said short-term capital has become more fragmented, with part of the money shifting into alternative assets such as gold, silver and commodities, which have seen heightened volatility and attracted short-term trading interest.

Seasonal factors at year-end have also prompted investors and businesses to withdraw cash to meet payment obligations and rebalance their finances, she added.

“This is largely a cyclical and seasonal phenomenon,” Ngoc said, noting that capital tends to rotate into investment channels offering better returns at different points in time.

A closer look at market flows shows that several small- and mid-cap sectors have become more active after a prolonged period of low interest, including oil and gas, seafood, textiles and garments, retail and technology, she said, adding that this indicates capital remains in the market and is moving flexibly.

“The current picture is not one of capital leaving equities, but rather a rotation of funds between stock groups in line with market cycles and investors’ risk appetite,” Ngoc said.

Sharing a similar view, financial analyst Huynh Hoang Phuong attributed the sharp decline in securities deposits in Q4 to capital being deployed into new opportunities, including rights issues, as well as to temporary and tactical reallocations.

Phuong noted that a series of large initial public offerings and follow-on share issuances, which began in late Q3/2025 and extended toward year-end, led many investors to park funds in brokerage accounts ahead of exercising their rights. Once these transactions were completed in Q4, cash balances declined to levels comparable to mid-Q2/2025, he said.

Other factors included tougher conditions for short-term speculation at higher index levels, as well as tighter bank credit and reduced liquidity in Q4 after two quarters of rapid expansion, prompting some policy-driven or speculative funds to pull back, Phuong added.

In addition, gradually rising deposit interest rates in Q4 made bank savings more attractive for investors who struggled to find clear opportunities in the stock market, he said.