Expert proposes solutions to reduce US tariff policy’s impact on Thai exports

The Thai Government should develop a national strategy to address circumvention and adjust production structures by adding value to agricultural and industrial products, aligning with global trends, according to an economist.

Basing on the U.S. government's decision to impose a reciprocal tariff of 19% on Thai goods and his analysis of the country’s 24 main exports to the U.S., including smart phones, computers, tyres, chips, and transformers, Aat Pisanwanich, an expert in international economics and an advisor on ASEAN affairs at Intelligence Research Consultant, predicted that there may be a trade diversion effect for these goods in the near future.

His analysis found the U.S. tariffs may reduce Thailand's exports by $8.16 billion. When factoring in the trade diversion effect, they could drop by THB 457 billion ($14.14 billion) this year.

He called on the Government to swiftly develop a national strategy to address circumvention practices and the improper use of rules of origin, particularly for goods containing local content at a rate of less than 40%.

This initiative should include collaboration with the U.S. Trade Representative to create digital traceability, a verification system for such goods.

The economist also urged authorities to create a new industrial production chain, enabling expansion and connection with other markets while securing Thailand's share in the U.S.

A significant overhaul of the production sector is essential, enhancing the value of agricultural and industrial products to align with global market trends, he stated, adding that a new investment framework should be introduced, requiring foreign investors to increase their procurement of materials from Thai small- and medium-sized enterprises and farmers.