Foreign players net unload record value of Vietnam shares, erasing net buy since 2010

Foreign investors have net sold VND60,501 billion ($2.38 billion) worth of Vietnamese securities listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, the country’s main bourse, so far this year, the highest value so far during one year.

The value even exceeded VND58,051 billion ($2.29 billion) worth of net sales on the bourse in the whole of 2021, exchange data showed.

Between 2010 and 2019, international players mainly net bought Vietnamese equities, except for 2016 when they net unloaded VND7,729 billion ($304.6 million at the current exchange rate). Notably, they net bought VND43,075 billion.

Since 2020, net selling has prevailed, except for 2022 when they net bought VND26,674 billion ($1.05 billion) on the HoSE. As a result, they have net sold nearly VND29 trillion worth of HoSE-listed equities since 2010.

SSI Research, the research division of leading brokerage house Saigon Securities (HoSE: SSI), said in a recent report that ETFs have net withdrawn a total of VND15,700 billion ($618.7 million) in the year to date, cutting their portfolio value to VND66 trillion.

Among them, iShares Frontier & Select EM ETF, managed by BlackRock, has significantly reduced its Vietnam exposure after a liquidation announcement last month.

Furthermore, they have observed net withdrawals at Vietnam-focused active funds.

They predicted net selling pressure to wane in the coming months given their smaller exposures.

Why foreign net sales?

Foreign sales in Vietnam track the reshuffle of global investments when international players have been fleeing frontier markets or those with weaker local currencies. The Vietnamese dong has lost circa 5% in value against the U.S. dollar in the year to date, despite strong intervention by the central bank.

Like in Vietnam, foreign investors have been withdrawing from Thailand and China.

Some of Vietnam’s peculiarities have disappointed foreign investors. Two major index providers, FTSE Russell and MSCI have yet to upgrade the country’s stock market status. The benchmark VN-Index of the HoSE has been moving in the 1,200-1,300 territory.

In addition, the privatization of state-owned enterprises has been sluggish while the IPO market has been tepid, offering few attractive “goods.”

Listed companies in the finance-banking and real estate industries have prevailed in terms of both number and market cap (around 60% of the total). These industries are characterized by cyclicity and their performances depend greatly on credit growth.

Meanwhile, industries such as technology, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, retail sales, and utilities that are favored by foreign investors account for a small share. This supply shortage narrows foreign investors’ access to the local stock market.

Although foreign trading has lost much influence on the Vietnamese stock market, prolonged selling has dampened domestic investor sentiment, according to industry insiders.

However, their net sales have not impacted the local stock market too negatively as the VN-Index has stayed steady in the 1,280 zone. Foreign trading now accounts for around 18-20% of daily trading, much lower than the 30-50% seen prior to 2020, said Bui Van Huy, a manager at DSC Securities.

Huy expected foreign investors to reduce selling or even return to buying as Vietnam’s stock market upgrade nears.