Heavyweight Hoa Phat benefits most from Vietnam's anti-dumping duty on China’s steel

Hoa Phat, Vietnam's biggest steel manufacturer, is the biggest beneficiary of the country's decision to impose an anti-dumping tax on hot-rolled coils (HRC) imported from China.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) on Friday issued Decision No. 460/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-dumping tax ranging from 19.38% to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products (HRC) originating from China, while India is exempt from this tax. This decision takes effect on March 8 and will remain in effect for 120 days from the date of issuance.

On July 26, 2024, the ministry decided to launch an anti-dumping investigation into some hot-rolled steel products from India and China during the period from July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024. The investigation was initiated based on complaints from domestic steel manufacturers accusing hot-rolled steel producers from India and China of dumping their products on Vietnam, causing damage to the domestic manufacturing industry.

On the HCMC Stock Exchange, HPG of Hoa Phat Group rose 4.73% to VND27,700 ($1.09) per share on Monday, after touching its celling price at several times. Meanwhile, other stocks in the same industry like SMC of SMC Trading Investment JSC, NKG of Nam Kim Steel, HSG of Hoa Sen Group, and GDA of Ton Dong A Corporation saw increases ranging from 1.24% to 2.99%.

According to Nguyen The Minh, head of research at broker Yuanta Securities, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s move helps reduce competitive pressure, thus positively supporting the average selling price for domestic manufacturers like Hoa Phat Group. In 2024, competition from Chinese steel significantly impacted the sales and average selling price of domestic HRC.

However, the news has negatively impacted companies dependent on imported HRC materials, such as Hoa Sen Group and Nam Kim Steel. But Minh believes that these companies have prepared by shifting to domestic sources of supply. Additionally, their current inventory levels help ease the pressure from any potential price hikes of HRC in the domestic market.

Similarly, analysts from VPBank Securities (VPBankS) see this tax as very positive for domestic HRC manufacturers like Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation as it is much higher than the usual price difference between Vietnamese and Chinese HRC (ranging from $15 to 45 per ton, or about 2.9% to 9%).

With the rates ranging from 19.38% to 27.83%, VPBankS said that Hoa Phat and Formosa will see will have strong HRC sale growth potential since these two companies currently meet only 39% of the demand.

According to Hoa Phat's report, domestic HRC production in 2024 reached 6.58 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous year. Meanwhile, HRC imports totaled more than 12 million tons, up 30%. Hoa Phat contributed 44.5% of domestic HRC output, equivalent to 2.93 million tons, nearly 5% higher than in 2023.

Hoa Phat is preparing to bring Phase 1 of the Dung Quat 2 project into trial operation, which will help increase HRC production capacity to 6.8 million tons per year, up 70% from the current production levels.

In contrast, companies that rely on imported HRC, such as Hoa Sen and Nam Kim will face negative impacts. However, VPBankS notes that these companies have proactively reduced risks by diversifying their HRC input sources.

Additionally, their Q4/2024 financial statements showed higher-than-average inventory of raw materials and goods in transit, indicating that they had stocked up on HRC ahead of the decision.

Therefore, in the short term, the broker believes that the negative impact on the coated steel companies will be negligible. In the long term, these companies will have to accept using domestic HRC or sourcing from non-Chinese imports at higher prices.

According to Vietnam Customs, 2024 marked a record year for steel imports into Vietnam, with total foreign exchange expenditure on iron and steel products reaching $19.07 billion, an increase of 21% from the previous year.

Vietnam primarily imported steel from China, South Korea, and Japan. Notably, imports from China accounted for $12.03 billion, or 63% of the total, mainly in the form of HRC.

The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) reported that Vietnam currently ranks 12th globally and leads the ASEAN region in steel production, with an estimated capacity of about 30 million tons in 2024. However, the steel industry is facing many difficulties due to the struggling real estate market, rising prices of raw materials, and large inventories, it noted.

According to the association, one of the reasons behind the sluggish sale of local steel products is the influx of imported steel from China. China is the world’s leading steel producer and exporter, with about 500 steel plants and a total capacity of approximately 1.17 billion tons of steel per year in 2023.

Over the past two years, China’s real estate market has stagnated, leading to an oversupply of steel, and Chinese steel manufacturers have been dumping their products on foreign markets, including Vietnam.

According to chairman Tran Dinh Long, Hoa Phat is currently the largest steel producer in Vietnam and is among the top 50 largest steel companies in the world. The group has exported products to 40 countries and territories.

The group is prioritizing completing and putting into operation the Hoa Phat Dung Quat 2 Iron and Steel Complex, located in Quang Ngai province. The goal is to be self-sufficient in production for key national projects, with particular focus on the North-South high-speed railway project in the 2026-2030 period.

When the complex is completed by the end of 2025, Hoa Phat's steel production capacity will reach 15 million tons per year, which is expected to place the group among the top 30 largest steel companies in the world.