Manufacturers in Vietnam 'increasingly optimistic' output will rise in 2026: S&P Global

Manufacturers in Vietnam are increasingly optimistic that output will rise in 2026, linked to improving customer demand, the launch of new products, and increased production capacity, according to S&P Global.

Close to half of respondents predicted a rise in output in the new year, the company said in a release on Friday.

In December, confidence strengthened for the third month running and was the highest since March 2024.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index ended the year at 53.0, down slightly from 53.8 in November but still comfortably above the 50.0 no change mark and signalling a solid monthly improvement in the overall health of the sector, S&P Global stated.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote: "The Vietnamese manufacturing sector ended a turbulent year on a positive note, with output and new orders rising solidly again and business confidence hitting a 21-month high."

"Overall, the sector goes into 2026 in a positive position, with manufacturers optimistic of securing new business and being able to expand their production capacity. S &P Global Market Intelligence forecasts industrial production growth of 6.7% in 2026," he added.

The final month of 2025 saw the Vietnamese manufacturing sector remain "firmly inside growth territory". Firms expanded output solidly again amid rising new orders, with better weather conditions helping to boost capacity. Employment increased, aiding efforts to reduce backlogs of work.

Vietnamese manufacturers again registered growth of production in the month, extending the current sequence of expansion to eight months.

Although weather conditions were more stable in December, the severe typhoons and flooding seen in previous months continued to impact the manufacturing sector at the end of the year, principally due to the effect of damage to raw materials on their delivery and supplier delays caused by flooding.

Suppliers' delivery times lengthened markedly again, within stances of delays only slightly less pronounced than the three-and-a-half year record posted in November.

Meanwhile, input costs increased at the fastest pace since June 2022 amid material scarcity and unfavourable exchange rate movements. In turn, output prices increased solidly, with the pace of inflation little-changed from November. The latest rise was much faster than the average for 2025 as a whole.

Although input costs increased rapidly, manufacturers still raised their purchasing activity sharply amid higher new orders and greater output requirements. Moreover, the pace of growth quickened to a 16-month high. Stocks of inputs also rose, the third month running in which this has been the case.

Stocks of finished goods, on the other hand, fell solidly as completed items were dispatched promptly to customers.

The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on November 12 approved a resolution setting an economic expansion target of at least 10% for 2026, per capita GDP at $5,400-5,500, and inflation controlled at around 4.5%.

The government aimed to enlarge the national economy by 8.3-8.5% for 2025. GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months. The figure was the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

Vietnam's economic outcomes in 2025 are yet to be released by the General Statistics Office.

Standard Chartered in late October raised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 7.5% for 2025 from the previous 6.1%, and to 7.2% for 2026 from 6.2%, following HSBC's revising up its prediction to 7.9% (from 6.6%) and 6.7% (from 5.8%), respectively.