Standard Chartered, HSBC raise Vietnam growth forecasts for 2025

Standard Chartered has raised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 7.5% for 2025 from the previous 6.1%, and to 7.2% for 2026 from 6.2%, following HSBC's revising up its prediction to 7.9% (from 6.6%) and 6.7% (from 5.8%), respectively.

"Vietnam's resilience and adaptability are evidenced by its successful attraction of strong FDI and robust export growth, solidifying its strategic role in global supply chain diversification and pointing to strong prospects for continued economic expansion.” commented Tim Leelahaphan, a senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand at the bank, in a release on Thursday.

Standard Chartered also revised its inflation forecasts slightly to 3.4% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026, "reflecting stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures".

"Vietnam continues to strengthen its role in the global supply chain, supported by robust trade performance and deeper integration into global trade through multiple free trade agreements (FTAs)," it wrote.

Total export value reached $42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in key sectors such as electronics and computers (+66.2%), telephones (+17.5%), and machinery (+11.6%).

Imports also rose by 24.9% to $39.8 billion, led by electronics and computer supplies (+43.6%) and machinery (+33.6%), signalling continued expansion in production and industrial capacity.

Vietnam’s external position remains resilient, supported by robust trade and a resilient FX outlook. After being depleted amid USD strength prior to this year, FX reserves are likely to be rebuilt, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability and a healthy trade performance, according to the bank.

Domestic credit growth has also accelerated, signalling continued economic recovery even without policy rate cuts. Credit growth is now above 15% year-on-year, reflecting improving business confidence and rising finance demand. Lending growth remains robust, supported by favourable liquidity conditions and government measures to stimulate growth.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a key growth driver. Disbursed FDI rose 8.5% year-on-year to $18.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, while pledged FDI rose 15.2% to $28.5 billion.

Standard Chartered economists expect the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% for the rest of 2025 and 2026, with accommodative conditions supporting investment and expansion.

The bank remains its USD-VND forecast at 26,300 for 2025 and 26,750 for 2026.

In its report named "Vietnam at a glance" released on Tuesday, HSBC noted that Vietnam needs to be mindful of the biggest downside risk to growth: trade volatility.

The bank raised its inflation forecast slightly to 3.3% (from 3.2%) for 2025 and 3.5% (from 3.2%) for 2026.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months of the year and 8.23% in Q3, according to official data. The figures were the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

The government set the country's economic expansion target at 8.3-8.5% for 2025.

EuroCham Vietnam's newly-released Q3 Business Confidence Index (BCI) editition shows a renewed surge of optimism among European firms operating in the country.

The index climbed to 66.5, surpassing pre-tariffs level and reaching its highest in three years – showcasing resilience and adaptability amid global headwinds and evolving U.S. tariff pressures.

“This steady confidence is particularly striking in a world defined by volatility and uncertainty – where the ripple effects of geopolitics, technological shifts, and climate change are rewriting trade and investment strategies across continents,” remarked EuroCham chairman Bruno Jaspaert.