New laws, abrupt property price surges dominate headlines in Vietnam's 2024 real estate market

Vietnam’s real estate landscape has shown some bright spots in 2024 on the back of three new real estate-related laws, but continued to face challenges, including supply-demand imbalance and abrupt surges in home prices.

Approval of three real estate-related laws

On June 29, the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, passed a law on amendments and supplements to the 2024 Land Law, the 2023 Law on Housing, and the 2023 Law on Real Estate Business.

These three laws took effect on August 1, 2024, five months earlier than scheduled. However, many experts and lawmakers believe that the enforcement of these new laws will take time to produce tangible results. Consequently, their specific impacts on the real estate market are not expected until 2025.

State intervention in strong home price fluctuations

Under Decree 96/2024, issued by the government in July, the state will intervene if property prices surge or plunge by 20% within three months, or if developments in the real estate market threaten socio-economic stability.

The decree stipulates that individuals engaged in small-scale real estate businesses are not required to plan an investment project or establish a firm. However, the number of transactions must not exceed ten per year, and the value of each contract must be under VND300 billion ($11.8 million). These individuals are also required to declare and pay taxes.

Proposal to tax multiple property ownership

On December 6, the Ministry of Finance proposed taxing those who own second properties and beyond as a way to curb speculation and stabilize the real estate market.

The Ministry of Construction voiced its support for the finance ministry’s proposal amid stubbornly high home prices.

Industrial real estate remains spotlight

The steady growth of FDI in Vietnam has been a key driver of the local industrial real estate market.

From January to November, FDI in Vietnam’s real estate sector reached nearly $5.63 billion, accounting for 17.9% of the total FDI and marking an 89.1% year-on-year increase. This made real estate the second-largest recipient of FDI during the period, behind the manufacturing and processing sector.

Legal hitches stall $3 bln worth of real estate projects

Thousands of real estate projects across Vietnam, worth over $3 billion, have been stalled by legal hitches, according to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS).

So far this year, the Ministry of Construction has addressed all 191 requests from localities, businesses, and people concerning 210 real estate projects.

Serious supply-demand mismatch

VARS reports that while housing supply has improved, the increase is primarily in the high-end segment, which meets only a small fraction of demand. Meanwhile, the need for affordable housing among the majority remains largely unmet, worsening the imbalance between supply and demand.

Currently, affordable apartments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have become virtually “extinct” from the market.

Home prices in major cities reach new highs

According to the construction ministry, as of end-Q3, new apartment prices in Hanoi had risen by 4-6% from Q2 and by 22-25% compared to the same period last year. In some areas, prices surged by as much as 35-40% from Q2.

The ministry attributed these price increases to rising land costs and a persistent shortage of affordable housing.

Social housing development goals remain unmet

Nearly all localities have failed to meet the goal of developing at least one million social housing units for factory workers and low-income earners by 2030.

Since 2021, a total of 644 social housing projects, comprising 580,109 units, have been planned. Among these, 96 projects with 57,652 units have been completed, 133 projects with 110,217 units have commenced, and 415 projects with 412,240 units have been approved.

Additionally, the disbursement of a VND120 trillion ($4.72 billion) credit package for social housing has been slow. So far, only 16 projects have secured a total of VND4.2 trillion ($165 million) from this package.

Challenges persist for real estate developers

According to the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), the local real estate market has shown signs of recovery since early 2024, recording 6–7% year-on-year growth in the first nine months of the year.

However, HoREA has expressed concern about the financial health of real estate developers, who face mounting debt repayment pressures. Approximately VND59 trillion ($2.35 billion) worth of bonds are set to mature by the end of the year.