'Pangasius queen' Vinh Hoan optimistic about US market despite cautious business outlook

Leaders of Vinh Hoan Corporation, one of Vietnam’s top pangasius exporters, said they remain optimistic about the U.S. market despite cautious business scenarios.

The company will continue to invest in alternative segments, including tilapia farming, to diversify and strengthen its competitive edge.

Two business scenarios for 2025

Leaders of Vinh Hoan JSC, listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) as VHC, presented two business scenarios to its shareholders at the 2025 AGM in HCMC on Thursday.

In the base-case scenario, the company targets VND10.9 trillion ($418.6 million) in revenue and VND1 trillion ($38.4 million) in net profit, down 13% and 18%, respectively, from the previous year.

Under the more optimistic scenario, it aims for VND12.35 trillion ($474.3 million) in revenue, down 1.3% from 2024; and VND1.3 trillion ($49.9 million) in after-tax profit, representing a 6% increase.

These targets are lower than the company’s initial 2025 plan, which projected revenue of VND13.8 trillion ($530 million), up 10.3%; and after-tax profit of VND1.5 trillion ($57.6 million), up 22.3%.

As a result, the revised net profit forecasts are VND500 billion ($19.2 million) and VND200 billion ($7.68 million) lower in the base and high scenarios, respectively.

For 2025, Vinh Hoan plans to invest VND830 billion ($31.87 million). The sum will be spent on expanding and modernizing its Vinh Hoan collagen factory, crop projects, equipment for phase one of the Thanh Ngoc fruit processing plant, a new warehouse of the Feedone aquatic feed plant, expanding the warehouse and increasing the production capacity of Sa Giang plant, enlarging farming areas, and upgrading the Vinh Phuoc, Thanh Binh and Vinh Hoan plants.

Regarding profit distribution, shareholders approved a 20% cash dividend for 2024, which has already been provisionally paid. The company aims to maintain this 20% payout in 2025.

Balancing caution with optimism

Speaking to shareholders, CEO Nguyen Ngo Vi Tam acknowledged that the U.S.’s imposition of high tariffs on Vietnamese goods was a shock, as it remains a key market for Vinh Hoan. But Tam expressed confidence in the resilience of the company’s flagship product - pangasius.

“We immediately assessed the impact of the tariffs on profitability and updated our forecasts accordingly before the AGM. Our projections reflect the most cautious estimates to avoid causing confusion among investors. That said, we remain optimistic about surpassing those targets, depending on market acceptance,” she added.

Tam noted that second-quarter orders are promising, as exporters are taking advantage of the U.S.’s 90-day tariff deferral period. She revealed that Q1/2025 profitability is expected to be solid, with higher profits compared to the same period last year.

Vinh Hoan has not observed any significant impact in non-U.S. markets, she stressed.

“We’re prioritizing the U.S. while maintaining supplies for other regions. Our main challenge lies in high raw material costs and smaller fish that don’t meet export size requirements,” she added.

Confidence in competitive advantage

Chairwoman Truong Thi Le Khanh emphasized that importers bear the cost of U.S. tariffs, whether 10% or as high as 46%, and reiterated the competitive edge of Vietnamese pangasius.

“Vietnam is a dominant global supplier of pangasius with very few competitors. Regardless of the tariff rate, it takes time for U.S. consumers and importers to adjust. A rate under 20% is easier to manage, but even at 46%, we believe the market can tolerate it, eventually,” Khanh told shareholders.

Despite pangasius being the company’s core product, Vinh Hoan is actively investing in tilapia farming. The leadership sees strong long-term potential in this segment, despite major competitors like China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, and Egypt.

“To compete, we must understand our position and create our own path. Vietnam has great potential in tilapia. Although the market is competitive, each country plays a different role. We’re building a supply chain, and the timing is right. This is a huge opportunity,” said Khanh.

At the closing session on Friday, VHC stood at VND49,700 ($1.91) per share.