Pork market to remain steady this year: industry insider

Pork supply, demand and prices will not fluctuate much until the end of this year, said Nguyen Tri Cong, chairman of the Dong Nai Livestock Association.

He told The Investor Friday that live hog prices are unlikely to go above VND65,000 ($2.73)/kg.

The price of live hog across the country fluctuated significantly in July 2023, reaching the year’s peak at VND67,000 ($2.81)/kg, according to the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Since then, the price has fallen to VND57,000-61,000/kg, a 10% decrease from the start of the year.

Vietcombank Securities, Ltd. (VCBS) has said in its agricultural sector outlook report for the second half of 2023 that the price of live pigs increased compared to the beginning of the year due to a local shortage caused by the African swine fever outbreak, while demand for pork increased. As the summer tourist season begins, demand for meat rises, it noted.

Furthermore, because the re-herd volume was slow, supply was reduced. Another reason for reduced market supply was small farmers giving up rearing pigs after prices plummeted in the past, the report said.

Cong, however, cautioned that the price of raw materials for animal feed has not fallen and may grow in the near future as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Furthermore, several nations throughout the world are experiencing crop failure, thus raw material prices may rise. However, local firms and traders have analyzed the situation, prepared plans, and have sufficient orders in hand, he said.

Accordingly, the domestic live hog price will not fluctuate strongly and will be around VND60,000/kg and not go higher than VND65,000/kg. At this rate, the breeder makes a profit.

Many exporters have seen orders reduce, affecting the income of people involved and leading them to tighten spending. This affects pork consumption while there is no supply shortage.

In H1, the country's total pig stock was about 26 million heads, up 2.5% year-on-year. The output of live pigs for slaughter was about 2.32 million tons, up 6.5%. Hence, pork prices are not likely to increase strongly, Cong said.

According to the General Department of Customs, in Q2/2023, Vietnam exported 4,540 tons of meat and meat products worth $23.8 million, down 22.7% in volume and 15.9% in value compared to Q1. Compared to Q2/2022, Vietnam's Q2/2023 meat exports decreased 12.1% in volume, but increased by 16% in value, .

In Q2/2023, Vietnam imported 165,120 tons of meat and meat products worth $326.8 million, up 26.6% in volume and 20.4% in value compared to Q1/2023; up 6.5% in volume and down 5.3% in value, year-on-year.