Renewables to account for 28-36% of Vietnam's energy output by 2030: adjusted PDP VIII

Vietnam's adjusted power development plan (PDP VIII), approved by the government on Tuesday, seeks to "maximize" renewable energy output which will account for 28-36% by 2030 and 74-75% by 2050 (excluding hydropower).

The adjusted PDP VIII for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision to 2050, was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son on April 15.

The plan sets a target of doubling power output by 2030, with renewables accounting for 28-36%. It aims to ensure sufficient power supply for an average GDP growth of 10% per year in the 2026-2030 period, and about 7.5% in the 2031-2050 period.

The output of electricity produced and imported in 2030 is expected to reach 560.4-24.6 billion kWh and rise to 1,360.1-1,511.1 billion kWh in 2050.

By 2030, the total capacity of power plants serving domestic demand (excluding exports) is 183,291 - 236,363 MW.

The adjusted PDP VIII says the development of onshore, nearshore and offshore wind power and solar power, especially water surface solar power, will be strengthened.

The development will be in line with the absorption capacity of the system, with reasonable prices and transmission costs, ensuring operational safety and economic efficiency of the power system and making the most of the existing grid infrastructure.

The government encourages and prioritizes the development of wind power and solar power, including solar power on the roofs of houses, shopping malls, construction sites, production facilities, factories, and industrial parks for on-site consumption, without connection or sale of electricity to the national grid.

The development of concentrated solar power must be combined with the installation of storage batteries, with a minimum ratio of 10% of the capacity and stored for two hours.

By 2030, the total onshore and nearshore wind power capacity will reach 26,066-38,029 MW (total technical potential in Vietnam is about 221,000 MW).

Priorities shall be given to newly planned wind power sources in localities with good wind potential and difficult economic conditions.

The technical potential of offshore wind power should be maximized (about 600,000 MW) to produce electricity and new energy, says the plan.

Wind power

The total onshore and nearshore wind power capacity is expected to reach 26,066-38,029 MW by 2030.

Offshore wind power that will be put into operation in the 2030-2035 period is 6,000 - 17,032 MW. The progress can be accelerated if conditions are favorable and prices are suitable. The figure will reach 113,503-139,097 MW by 2050.

Solar power

Vietnam's solar power potential is about 963,000 MW (ground 837,400 MW, water surface 77,400 MW, and rooftop 48,200 MW).

By 2030, the total capacity of solar power sources (including concentrated solar power and rooftop solar power, excluding solar power sources according to Clause 5, Article 10 of Electricity Law No. 61/2024/QH15) will reach 46,459-73,416 MW. The figure will rise to 293,088 - 295,646 MW by 2050.

The government targets that by 2030, 50% of office buildings and 50% of households will use rooftop solar power in the form of self-production and self-consumption.

Biomass power

The government encourages and prioritizes the development of biomass power and electricity produced from waste and solid waste to utilize agricultural and forestry by-products.

By 2030, the total capacity of biomass power will be about 1,523 - 2,699 MW; electricity produced from waste and solid waste 1,441 - 2,137 MW; geothermal power and other new energy about 45 MW.

By 2050, biomass power will be about 4,829 - 6,960 MW; electricity produced from waste and solid waste about 1,784 - 2,137 MW; geothermal power and other new energy about 464 MW.

Hydropower

The total capacity of hydropower plants (including small plants) will reach 33,294 - 34,667 MW by 2030. The tally can be higher if the environment, forest protection, and water security are ensured. The aim for 2050 is 40,624 MW.

Storage batteries

The electricity storage system will be heavily invested in, with the goal of achieving a battery capacity of 10,000-16,300 MW by 2030 and nearly 96,120 MW by 2050 to match the high proportion of renewable energy.

Storage batteries are spreadly allocated near wind and solar power centers or on the power systems at load centers.

In addition, priority and encouragement are given to the development of cogeneration power plants and power plants using residual heat, blast furnace gas and by-products of technological lines in industrial facilities.

Gas-fired power

Maximum use of domestic gas for power generation is prioritized. In case of a decrease in domestic gas output, it will be supplemented with imported natural gas or LNG.

Projects using LNG and LNG import infrastructure shall be synchronously developed with appropriate scale and modern technology.

Domestic gas-fired thermal power by 2030 will hit 10,861 - 14,930 MW, or 5.9 - 6.3%; while LNG thermal power will be 22,524 MW, or 9.5 - 12.3%.

Nuclear power

Nuclear power sources will be developed in accordance with the National Assembly resolutions and Prime Minister directive. Accordingly, in the period of 2030-2035, Ninh Thuan nuclear power plants 1 and 2, with a scale of 4,000 - 6,400 MW, will be put into operation.

In the period up to 2050, the system needs to have an additional 8,000 MW of nuclear power to provide base power, and the figure can increase according to demand.

Flexible power sources

Flexible power sources will be developed to regulate load and maintain stability of the power system to absorb large-scale renewable energy sources.

This source of energy is expected to reach 2,000 - 3,000 MW by 2030 and up to 21,333 - 38,641 MW by 2050.

Hydrogen

In the long term, a gradual transition to hydrogen will be made when the technology is commercialized and the price is suitable.

Coal-fired power

The plan does not see additional coal-fired thermal power projects. It only sees the presence of already-planned projects or those under construction until 2030.

Projects that have been operating for over 20 years will be converted to biomass or ammonia when the price is reasonable. Plants that are over 40 years old will stop operating if they cannot have their fuel converted.

By 2030, coal-fired thermal power will reach 31,055 MW, or 13.1 - 16.9%.

Export

Vietnam aims to export renewable electricity to Singapore, Malaysia and other partners in the region. By 2035, the expected export capacity is 5,000-10,000 MW, depending on demand, economic efficiency, and national energy security.

Import

Vietnam will expand import of electricity from Southeast Asian countries and the Mekong Sub-region (GMS). The country will pay attention to investing in and exploiting electricity sources abroad to supply electricity to Vietnam.

In 2030, import from Laos (according to the agreement between the two governments) and China will be about 9,360 - 12,100 MW, accounting for 4-5.1%.

Vietnam will take advantage of the import capacity suitable to the conditions of connection with China with a reasonable scale.

By 2050, import will be about 14,688 MW. If conditions are favorable and prices are reasonable, it is possible to increase the maximum scale or advance the time to import electricity from Laos to the northern Vietnam region, the plan notes.

Investment capital

The adjusted PDP VIII estimates that the total investment capital for developing power sources and transmission grids will be about $136.3 billion in the 2026-2030 period and an additional $130 billion will be needed in the years 2031-2035.

From 2036 to 2050, Vietnam will need to invest an additional $569.1 billion in these activities.