SHB bank sees development drivers from capital-raising strategy, opportunities to attract foreign inflows

The upcoming capital-hike strategy is expected to position Saigon-Hanoi Bank (SHB) among the Top 4 private banks in Vietnam by charter capital, helping the lender maintain its competitive advantage via robust capital strength.

In addition, the bank, listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) as SHB, is forecast to be included in the global equity index baskets under the FTSE Russell system once Vietnam’s stock market is officially upgraded to "secondary emerging" status.

These two key factors form strong dual drivers for SHB’s outstanding growth potential in the near future.

With Vietnam’s stock market status being upgraded from “frontier” to “secondary emerging” by FTSE Russell, experts and investors predict this will attract foreign investment. As the market meets higher standards, more global investment funds and institutions are expected to enter Vietnam, pushing equity valuations closer to those of other emerging markets in the region.

According to Dragon Capital, many investors, especially institutional funds that have never invested in Vietnam, are now studying the market and preparing to open accounts, paving the way for foreign capital to return over the next few quarters.

This renewed interest is supported by stable macro conditions, high growth relative to the region, political stability, market transparency, strong corporate earnings, good liquidity, and a diverse range of assets.

Most recently, FTSE released a report on market reclassification plans and announced Vietnam’s projected weight in major index baskets after the upgrade (including 0.04% in the FTSE Global All Cap, 0.02% in the FTSE All-World, 0.34% in the FTSE Emerging All Cap, and 0.22% in the FTSE Emerging Index). FTSE also stated that SHB is among the stocks likely to enter the FTSE Global All Cap index.

According to BIDV Securities (BSC), there may be additional room for Vietnam’s weighting to increase. The current data is based on October 31, 2025, and does not account for possible future market reclassification changes in other countries such as Greece, Egypt, or Oman, nor fluctuations in market capitalization and investable weight.

The broker noted that Greece (currently weighing 0.72% in the FTSE Emerging Index) will be upgraded to “developed market,” which could free up additional allocation room for other emerging markets, including Vietnam, after the March 2026 interim review.

Competitive advantage from strong capital capacity

According to BSC, by the end of Q3/2025, total credit growth in the Vietnamese economy had reached about 13.4% against the beginning of the year, bringing total outstanding credit to more than VND17,700 trillion ($671 billion).

By the end of 2025, credit growth is expected to reach 18-20% and remain similar in 2026. BSC assesses SHB as one of the banks that will benefit the most as regulators maintain a loose monetary stance and the real estate market continues to recover, enabling SHB to be among industry leaders in loan growth.

As of September 30, 2025, SHB’s total outstanding credit rose 15% to nearly VND616.6 trillion ($23.38 billion), supported by its competitive advantage from comprehensive partnerships with major state-owned and private conglomerates, ecosystem strategies, business supply chains, and retail banking.

SHB is also undergoing strong retail and digital transformation, optimizing operating costs (cost to income ratio, or CIR, is among the lowest in the sector at 18.9%) and boosting profitability (return on equity, or ROE, at 19.2%).

In the first nine months of 2025, SHB’s pre-tax profit surged 36% year-on-year, reaching VND12.24 trillion ($463.89 million), or 85% of the year's plan.

BSC highlighted that capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is the most critical factor when banks accelerate credit expansion. Compared to other ASEAN markets that have adopted Basel III, Vietnam’s banking system has a significantly lower capital buffer - just over 12% versus the 19% regional average.

As a result, capital-raising will be a central theme in the banking sector over the coming years. In this wave, banks with stronger capital capacities will hold the most advantageous positions.

Joining this sector-wide capital-raising wave, SHB’s AGM recently approved a VND7.5 trillion ($284.36 million) charter capital increase for 2025. Under this plan, the bank will issue more than 459 million shares to existing shareholders, 200 million private-placement shares to professional investors, and over 90 million ESOP (Employment Stock Ownership Plan) shares.

After completion, SHB’s charter capital is expected to reach over VND53.4 trillion ($2.02 billion), placing it among the Top 4 private banks by capital.

The additional capital will be used to expand lending, invest in infrastructure and strategic projects, modernize IT systems, and accelerate digital banking transformation. This will strengthen SHB’s financial capacity and competitiveness, better meeting safety standards and international requirements amid market fluctuations.

SHB’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is consistently around 12%, rising to 12.5% as of June 30, 2025 - well above the minimum requirement of 8%. Its risk management system follows the three-lines-of-defense model with internationally standardized risk measurement, monitoring, and early-warning methods.

According to Agribank Securities (Agriseco), as of November 19, 2025, the banking sector’s average price-to-book (P/B) ratio stood at 1.6x, below the 5-year average of 1.8x, after a 20-30% correction from the August 2025 peak.

Given the positive growth outlook, Agriseco believes banking stocks remain attractive for accumulation. Importantly, capital-increase plans in late 2025 and early 2026 will continue to support bank stock prices.

Since the beginning of the year, SHB’s share price has surged 110% to VND16,700 ($0.63) per share, with average daily liquidity of 70-80 million shares, and multiple sessions exceeding 100 million shares.

SHB’s P/B ratio stands at 1.16x, attractive compared to the sector average. The combination of capital-increase momentum, stronger financial capacity, reinforced industry position, and market-upgrade potential paints a highly promising investment outlook for SHB’s stock.