S&P affirms Thailand's BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook

S&P Global Ratings has reaffirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook.

The agency forecasts steady economic growth for the country, expecting GDP to rise from 1.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025.

This growth will be driven by ongoing economic stimulus measures and a strong recovery in the tourism sector. Over the 2024-2027 period, Thailand's real GDP growth is projected to average 3%.

Pachara Anantasilp, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office, highlighted key factors contributing to the positive outlook. S&P expects the government to continue prioritizing investments that align with national strategies.

These include the development of the Eastern Economic Corridor and large-scale transportation infrastructure projects. Investments by state enterprises and public-private partnerships are also expected to drive these initiatives forward.

The net government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise by 3.3% in 2025. This increase is partly attributed to economic stimulus measures such as the 2024 Economic Stimulus Programme, which includes 10,000-baht cash handouts for eligible citizens.

From 2024 to 2027, Thailand’s current account surplus is expected to average 2.3%. This will be supported by a recovery in the export sector and a revitalized tourism industry. Between January and October 2024, international tourist arrivals surged to 28.8 million, marking a 29.3% increase compared to the same period last year.

S&P will closely monitor Thailand’s economic growth relative to countries with similar income levels. The agency also noted the importance of domestic political stability. Consistent economic policies and stable political conditions could pave the way for an upgrade in Thailand’s credit rating to A-, as they would enable more effective economic policymaking.