Steel prices to rise this year, but not significantly: trading floor exec

Several domestic and international factors will push steel prices up this year, but not by much, said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy general director of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV).

On Thursday, Hoa Phat’s CB240 steel coil line was priced at VND14.14 million ($575.6) per ton; and the D10 CB300 rebar steel price at VND14.53 million ($591.5) per ton, up 1% compared to early January, according to Steel Online, a popular site that follows steel prices in Vietnam.

Quynh told The Investor that the steel market had just gone through a challenging year with both global and domestic economic development slowing down.

However, this year will be different, he said, adding that steel prices were set to rise slightly above the 2023 average this year, with economic and consumption outlook looking positive.

He said macroeconomic pressures have eased as major central banks reach the end of their monetary tightening cycle.

The World Steel Association (WorldSteel) has predicted that global steel consumption would rise by 1.9% year-on-year in 2024. Manufacturing, automation and infrastructure, particularly those related to energy transition, will remain the primary drivers of steel demand in 2024.

In addition, India is seen as a bright spot in the global steel market, with double-digit growth. The steel industries in Europe and the U.S are also predicted to improve, owing mostly to recovering demand in the automobile and industrial output sectors, as well as lower energy costs and inflation, Quynh noted.

However, the upward movement of global steel prices may be hampered by lower consumption in China, a market that accounts for more than half of total steel consumption. Experts believe China's steel consumption peaked in 2023 and will fall by 1.7% in 2024 due to a dramatic drop in demand from the real estate sector. So the rise in steel prices might not be significant, at least in the first half of the year.

Quynh said steel prices in the domestic market typically follow global trends. With steel prices and raw material costs in China expected to continue rising in late 2023, steel manufacturers have seen five consecutive price hikes since November 21, 2023, ending a 19-year period of decline, he added.

Meanwhile, domestic steel prices have bottomed out, but there is still plenty of space for price increases in 2024, when consumption is expected to improve. Construction steel prices could reach VND15 million ($610.69) per ton.

Domestic demand to recover

In its latest steel market assessment, SSI Securities said demand may recover in 2024, particularly in the domestic market. Experts with the brokerage predicted that total steel consumption could rebound by more than 6% year-on-year in 2024, with domestic demand growing by about 7%.

The domestic channel began to rebound at the end of 2023, with sales value growing 13% between September and November. This followed a 20% decrease in sales volume from January to August 2023. Steel demand in 2024 will be boosted by improved macroeconomic conditions and a stronger real estate industry, the experts said.

They estimate that profits for steel businesses may have bottomed out in 2023 and could likely rebound over the next 2–3 years.

The SSI experts expect steel businesses' earnings to climb significantly in 2024 from a low base in 2023, owing to increased consumption and output, particularly by the Hoa Phat and Hoa Sen groups. Steel businesses' gross profit margins have recovered from a multi-year low, indicating a halt to the decreasing trend of recent years.

SSI anticipates stronger profit growth in the first half of 2024 due to the low base in the first half of 2023. The recovery trend may continue, but consumption demand and profit margin remain erratic, making steel stocks appealing to investors with high risk tolerance.