Steel prices to rise this year, but not significantly: trading floor exec

By Lan Do
Thu, January 18, 2024 | 10:53 pm GMT+7

Several domestic and international factors will push steel prices up this year, but not by much, said Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, deputy general director of the Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam (MXV).

On Thursday, Hoa Phat’s CB240 steel coil line was priced at VND14.14 million ($575.6) per ton; and the D10 CB300 rebar steel price at VND14.53 million ($591.5) per ton, up 1% compared to early January, according to Steel Online, a popular site that follows steel prices in Vietnam.

Steel prices are predicted to increase this year. Photo courtesy of the government's news portal.

Steel prices are predicted to increase this year. Photo courtesy of the government's news portal.

Quynh told The Investor that the steel market had just gone through a challenging year with both global and domestic economic development slowing down.

However, this year will be different, he said, adding that steel prices were set to rise slightly above the 2023 average this year, with economic and consumption outlook looking positive.

He said macroeconomic pressures have eased as major central banks reach the end of their monetary tightening cycle.

The World Steel Association (WorldSteel) has predicted that global steel consumption would rise by 1.9% year-on-year in 2024. Manufacturing, automation and infrastructure, particularly those related to energy transition, will remain the primary drivers of steel demand in 2024.

In addition, India is seen as a bright spot in the global steel market, with double-digit growth. The steel industries in Europe and the U.S are also predicted to improve, owing mostly to recovering demand in the automobile and industrial output sectors, as well as lower energy costs and inflation, Quynh noted.

However, the upward movement of global steel prices may be hampered by lower consumption in China, a market that accounts for more than half of total steel consumption. Experts believe China's steel consumption peaked in 2023 and will fall by 1.7% in 2024 due to a dramatic drop in demand from the real estate sector. So the rise in steel prices might not be significant, at least in the first half of the year.

Quynh said steel prices in the domestic market typically follow global trends. With steel prices and raw material costs in China expected to continue rising in late 2023, steel manufacturers have seen five consecutive price hikes since November 21, 2023, ending a 19-year period of decline, he added.

Meanwhile, domestic steel prices have bottomed out, but there is still plenty of space for price increases in 2024, when consumption is expected to improve. Construction steel prices could reach VND15 million ($610.69) per ton.

Domestic demand to recover

In its latest steel market assessment, SSI Securities said demand may recover in 2024, particularly in the domestic market. Experts with the brokerage predicted that total steel consumption could rebound by more than 6% year-on-year in 2024, with domestic demand growing by about 7%.

The domestic channel began to rebound at the end of 2023, with sales value growing 13% between September and November. This followed a 20% decrease in sales volume from January to August 2023. Steel demand in 2024 will be boosted by improved macroeconomic conditions and a stronger real estate industry, the experts said.

They estimate that profits for steel businesses may have bottomed out in 2023 and could likely rebound over the next 2–3 years.

The SSI experts expect steel businesses' earnings to climb significantly in 2024 from a low base in 2023, owing to increased consumption and output, particularly by the Hoa Phat and Hoa Sen groups. Steel businesses' gross profit margins have recovered from a multi-year low, indicating a halt to the decreasing trend of recent years.

SSI anticipates stronger profit growth in the first half of 2024 due to the low base in the first half of 2023. The recovery trend may continue, but consumption demand and profit margin remain erratic, making steel stocks appealing to investors with high risk tolerance.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vietnam business lobby urges easing of football betting limits

Vietnam business lobby urges easing of football betting limits

Vietnam’s leading business lobby VCCI has called on the government to sharply ease limits on international football betting and relax foreign ownership rules to make the industry more appealing to investors.

Finance - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 9:30 pm GMT+7

Powering growth from within

Powering growth from within

The development of a strong domestic private sector is essential for building a resilient, independent, and self-reliant economy that is less dependent on state-owned enterprises or foreign investment, writes Tim Evans, CEO of HSBC Vietnam.

Economy - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 9:09 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's stock market regulator appoints 2 new vice chairpersons

Vietnam's stock market regulator appoints 2 new vice chairpersons

The State Securities Commission of Vietnam (SSC) has appointed Nguyen Hoang Duong and Le Thi Viet Nga as its new vice chairpersons.

Finance - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 4:14 pm GMT+7

Vinhomes chairman appointed CEO of VinSpeed

Vinhomes chairman appointed CEO of VinSpeed

Pham Thieu Hoa, chairman of Vinhomes, has been appointed CEO of VinSpeed, a newly established company specializing in railway construction.

Companies - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 3:40 pm GMT+7

De Heus, Hung Nhon to invest $380 mln in high-tech agriculture hub in southern Vietnam

De Heus, Hung Nhon to invest $380 mln in high-tech agriculture hub in southern Vietnam

Dutch agribusiness group Royal De Heus and Vietnam’s Hung Nhon Group plan to invest VND10 trillion ($380 million) to develop a high-tech agricultural ecosystem in Tay Ninh province between 2025 and 2030.

Industries - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 2:35 pm GMT+7

Consumer finance major F88’s credit rating upgraded on improved funding capability, liquidity

Consumer finance major F88’s credit rating upgraded on improved funding capability, liquidity

Vietnamese credit ratings agency FiinRatings has upgraded F88's credit rating from “BBB-” to “BBB”, with a “stable” outlook, citing the company's enhanced capital-raising ability and improved liquidity position.

Companies - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 2:00 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index could surpass 2,000 points in 2026: exec

Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index could surpass 2,000 points in 2026: exec

VN-Index could top 2,000 points next year, said Huynh Minh Tuan, founder of FIDT - a Ho Chi Minh City-based investment consulting firm.

Finance - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 10:55 am GMT+7

Key factors helping firms export to demanding markets: DH Foods exec

Key factors helping firms export to demanding markets: DH Foods exec

Don’t treat business as a week-to-week or month-to-month affair. To go the distance, you must conduct business ethically, writes Nguyen Trung Dung, CEO of DH Foods.

Consulting - Thu, October 23, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Gold exchange, gold derivatives, gold ETFs proposed to be launched in Vietnam

Gold exchange, gold derivatives, gold ETFs proposed to be launched in Vietnam

Forming a gold exchange under state management in Vietnam is suitable to the reality, said Dao Xuan Tuan, head of the foreign exchange management department under the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).

Finance - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 9:00 pm GMT+7

Real estate major Novaland wins key approval for $5 bln project in central Vietnam

Real estate major Novaland wins key approval for $5 bln project in central Vietnam

Novaland Group (HoSE: NVL), one of Vietnam’s leading property developers, has received investment approval for its flagship project worth $5 billion in the central province of Lam Dong after years of delay due to legal obstacles.

Real Estate - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 4:20 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's plastics heavyweights Tien Phong, Binh Minh report profit surges

Vietnam's plastics heavyweights Tien Phong, Binh Minh report profit surges

Tien Phong Plastic (HNX: NTP) recorded pre-tax profit of nearly VND949 billion ($36.04 million) in the first nine months of the year, exceeding its full-year target by 10.85%, while Binh Minh Plastic (HoSE: BMP) achieved record net profit of VND350 billion ($13.29 million) in Q3, surpassing its VND330 billion milestone set in the previous quarter.

Companies - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7

Vietnam, Finland firms sign multiple MoUs on satellite, cybersecurity, aviation partnerships

Vietnam, Finland firms sign multiple MoUs on satellite, cybersecurity, aviation partnerships

A series of cooperation agreements were signed between Vietnam and Finland on Tuesday, within the framework of Party chief To Lam's official visit to Helsinki, while bilateral relationship was lifted to a "strategic partnership".

Economy - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 12:43 pm GMT+7

Trung Nam Ca Na seeks to convert agri-forest land for $147 mln industrial park in central Vietnam

Trung Nam Ca Na seeks to convert agri-forest land for $147 mln industrial park in central Vietnam

Industrial park developer Trung Nam Ca Na is seeking approval to convert about 170 hectares of agricultural and forest land for the construction of a VND3,875 billion ($147 million) project in Vietnam’s central coastal province of Khanh Hoa.

Industrial real estate - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 10:54 am GMT+7

PV Power's arm posts 5-fold jump in Q3 profit on margin recovery

PV Power's arm posts 5-fold jump in Q3 profit on margin recovery

PetroVietnam Power Nhon Trach 2 JSC (HoSE: NT2) reported a sharp rebound in third-quarter earnings as improved margins and higher revenue lifted profits nearly fivefold from a year earlier.

Companies - Wed, October 22, 2025 | 8:37 am GMT+7

TCBS overtakes SSI to become Vietnam’s largest securities company by market cap

TCBS overtakes SSI to become Vietnam’s largest securities company by market cap

Over 2.3 billion shares of Techcom Securities JSC (TCBS) debuted on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) on Tuesday. The stock, TCX, recorded the highest price and the largest market capitalization in the Vietnamese securities sector.

Finance - Tue, October 21, 2025 | 10:27 pm GMT+7

Indonesia’s palm oil industry becomes investment magnet

Indonesia’s palm oil industry becomes investment magnet

Indonesia’s palm oil sector attracted IDR52.7 trillion, or approximately $3.2 billion, in investment during the first nine months of this year, with the money going into enabling the country to capture more value out of its top commodity, the country’s Ministry of Investment reported.

Southeast Asia - Tue, October 21, 2025 | 9:34 pm GMT+7