Vietnamese export stocks under the radar despite strong earnings

Investor caution over tariff risks and the slowdown of major economies has prevented Vietnamese export stocks from making a strong price recovery.

As of the last Friday trading session, many export stocks had still not returned to pre-tariff levels (April 2 session). Seafood stocks such as Vinh Hoan Corp. (VHC) fell 7.01%, while Sao Ta Foods JSC (FMC) dropped 25.1%.

Textile stocks including Thanh Cong Textile Garment Investment Trading JSC (TCM), TNG Investment and Trading JSC (TNG), and Century Corp. (STK) also underperformed, while wood-related stocks like Thuan Duc JSC (TDP) and An Cuong Wood - Working JSC (ACG) experienced similar declines.

On the other hand, some tickers, including Nam Viet Corp. (ANV) and Minh Phu Seafood JSC (MPC), recorded strong growth thanks to company-specific catalysts.

Despite weak stock price performance, export companies reported positive Q3 results. Vinh Hoan Corp. (VHC) posted a profit of VND455 billion ($17.25 million), up 35%, driven by the reversal of provisions and financial gains from exchange rate differences.

Sao Ta Foods JSC (FMC) recorded a post-tax profit of VND112 billion ($4.63 million), up over 18% year-on-year, citing a 5.02% increase in sales and lower costs from the settlement of the second 2025 self-farmed shrimp crop.

Similarly, textile companies reported strong profits, including MSH (VND201 billion or $7.62 million, up 54% year-on-year), Vinatex (VND359.3 billion, up 56%), and TNG (VND117 billion, up 5%).

Despite solid business performance, stock prices have yet to rally. Is capital flow “forgetting” the export sector? Nguyen The Minh, head of retail research and development at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, noted that many investors remain wary of tariff risks and slowing global growth.

“Although the risks are not as severe as in April 2025, the unpredictable policies of President Donald Trump still pose a real threat. As a result, capital flows have not yet strongly entered this sector,” he said.

However, he added that the reduced tariff risk is a positive factor. Export stocks are no longer falling sharply, though a strong rally or a return to pre-tariff price levels remains unlikely.

Analyst Pham Mai Ngoc from VPBank Securities expressed optimism that the 0% tariff exemption (despite no detailed list of benefiting sectors yet) from the Trump administration could benefit food, seafood, and food-processing companies.

“The tariff exemption for food indicates a ‘softening’ in U.S. import policies for agricultural products. This creates positive sentiment among U.S. importers, potentially improving trade conditions for Vietnam’s seafood sector, especially for companies with SPS/BAP/ASC certifications and traceability,” she said.

BIDV Securities highlighted risks that could affect export sectors in the near term, including tariff-driven shifts in global trade and weakening consumer demand, which could pressure growth for listed companies.

In addition, foreign investor net selling may continue, particularly as Vietnam’s market status upgrade process requires more time, and capital may be diverted to late-2025 IPOs.

Nguyen The Minh, head of retail research and development at Yuanta Vietnam Securities:

With tariff risks gradually decreasing, China’s economy is likely to benefit first. Investors should consider companies with export exposure to China. Seafood is a representative sector, while companies with market share in the U.S. and Europe may see profit momentum in Q1 next year.

Recently, expectations have also risen regarding the EU’s potential removal of the yellow card relating to illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. A positive outcome would clearly be a major advantage for the seafood sector.

Pham Mai Ngoc, VPBank Securities analyst:

Investors should focus on stocks with stable profit growth over the next 2-3 quarters, particularly export companies in recovery. Priority should go to firms with ‘new factors,’ such as new products, new markets, new orders, or new customers.

Stocks that have not risen significantly, still have valuation room, and are in accumulation phases may benefit. With favorable policies, improving global demand, and attractive valuations, export companies could become one of the bright spots in Vietnam’s stock market in the coming months.