Typhoon Yagi can reduce Vietnam GDP growth by 0.2-0.5 percentage points: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
Super typhoon Yagi can reduce Vietnam’s GDP growth this year by 0.2-0.5 percentage points, according to a Monday commentary of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), among the biggest banking institutions in Japan.
MUFG noted that Yagi hit northern Vietnam, particularly the Red River Delta, with economic hubs of Hanoi capital city, Hai Phong city and provinces of Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, and Thai Nguyen. Those areas make up 38% of Vietnam’s GDP and 55% of the country’s export revenues.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh cries twice during a cabinet meeting (left) and a live TV program when he talks about losses from super typhoon Yagi, September 15, 2024. Photos courtesy of the government's news portal and VTV.
MUFG estimated that resolving the disruptions caused by Yagi would take two-three months, possibly longer. The negative impacts to the country’s GDP growth can range between 0.16 and 0.45 percentage points, according to MUFG. This is similar to the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s calculation of 0.15 percentage points.
Nonetheless, in case the impacts linger beyond three months and spreads out further due to flooding, the impact could reach 0.9-1.5 percentage points, according to MUFG.
On Sunday, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung reported that typhoon Yagi can slow down Vietnam’s economic growth by 0.15 percentage points, versus the scenarios of no typhoon with GDP growth of 6.8-7%.
The worst impact is possible reduction of 0.33 percentage points against the agriculture-fisheries-forestry sector, 0.22 percentage points for the service sector, and 0.05 percentage points for industry-construction sector.
According to preliminary report, Yagi caused asset damage of VND40 trillion ($1.63 billion), including damages against 257,000 houses and 1,300 schools, 262,000 hectares of paddy rice and trees, 2,250 fisheries cages, 310,000 trees, and 2.3 million cattle-poultry heads.
As of early Monday morning, Vietnam recorded 330 victims of typhoon Yagi, including 292 deaths and 38 missing.
Vietnam’s GDP growth reached 6.93% in the second quarter and 6.42% in the first half of 2024, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).
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