USD price likely to hit record high of VND26,300 in Q3, drop to VND26,100 in Q4: UOB

Singaporean bank UOB on Monday said its updated forecasts on the USD/VND exchange rate are VND26,300 per USD in Q3/2025; 26,100 in Q4/2025; 25,900 in Q1/2026; and 25,700 in Q2/2026.

"We anticipate the currency will remain near the weaker end of its trading band against the USD through Q3/2025. However, starting in Q4/2025, the VND may begin to align with the broader recovery trend in Asian currencies as trade-related uncertainties begin to ease," UOB said in a release.

The VND has stood out as an underperformer since late April amid the broader regional foreign exchange rebound in Q2/2025. VND depreciated by 1.8% in the quarter to date to a new record low of about VND26,000 per USD, according to the bank.

"This weakness is driven by a subdued economic outlook — our 2025 GDP growth forecast is 6%, down from 7.09% in 2024 - and the looming risk of a return to the steep 46% tariff should the US-Vietnamtrade negotiations fail to see meaningful progress. These factors are expected to keep the VND under pressure in the near term," UOB added.

The lender stated that it maintains its call for Vietnam’s full-year growth forecasts at 6% in 2025 and 6.3% in 2026, with growth projections for Q2/2025 and Q3/2025 at 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

The State Bank of Vietnam, the country's central bank, on Tuesday set the daily reference exchange at VND24,985 per USD, down VND7 from the previous day.

With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is VND26,234/USD and the floor rate VND23,736/USD.

At 2:30 p.m. Tuesday, the buying rate at Vietcombank was VND25,860/USD and the selling rate VND26,220/USD, unchanged compared to Monday.

For Sacombank, the respective figures were VND25,853 and VND26,216, down VND7 and VND4 from the previous day.

Vietcombank, a state-controlled bank, are among the top 4 Vietnamese banks, while Sacombank is a private bank. The above figures refer to payments via bank transfer, instead of cash.