USD price likely to hit VND25,450 by Q2/2025: StanChart
Standard Chartered forecasts Fed rate cuts, which should lead to a softer-USD bias over the next few quarters, will result in the exchange rate of USD/VND at 25,250 by the end of 2024 and 25,450 by Q2/2025.

A bank clerk counts USD notes. Photo courtesy of Asia Commercial Bank (ACB).
In a report released on Thursday, the bank predicts the USD may face a period of weakness early in 2025 due to continued Fed rate cuts and uncertainty about policy implementation. But it is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of 2025 as fiscal and tariff measures under Trump 2.0 are clarified and implemented.
"Recent Fed rate cuts were expected to support Asian currencies, including the VND. However, stronger-than-anticipated US economic data has led to a less supportive environment for Asian FX markets. Trade policy uncertainties and inflation-inducing measures under Trump could further complicate currency stability in the region," it noted.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the country's central bank, set the daily reference exchange rate at VND24,264 per USD on Friday, up VND5 from Thursday.
With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is VND25,477 per USD and the floor rate VND23,051.
At the end of the day, major commercial banks Vietcombank and BIDV listed the buying rate at VND25,177 per USD and the selling rate at VND25,477, both up VND6 from Thursday.
Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered, commented that Fed moves will be key to the SBV's policy decisions.
"Lower USD rates may help to reduce capital outflows, while a sustained trade surplus and strong tourism should support the VND; however, low import cover remains a challenge," he commented.
Standard Chartered expects Vietnam will record strong GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025, with growth easing from 7.5% year-on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second half.
The country's economic growth has remained resilient, according to the bank.
Exports grew 14.4% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2024 to $369.93 billion, while imports grew 16.4% to $345.62 billion, with electronics exports and imports continuing their recovery, General Statistic Office (GSO) data shows.
The manufacturing sector has experienced solid growth, and relatively accommodative monetary policy may have also contributed to the economic recovery in the year to date.
Foreign investment appetite remains strong, as indicated by inward FDI flows. Disbursed FDI was estimated to reach about $21.68 billion in the 11-month period, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
The manufacturing and processing sector accounted for 64.4% of total registered FDI during that period, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the property sector’s share was 17.9%, up 89.1%.
Leelahaphan said: “We expect the SBV to hike rates by 50 bps in Q2-2025. The government’s desire for stronger economic growth may support low interest rates for now."
He added that inflation could rise again starting in Q2/2025, but he expects rate normalization in Q2.
- Read More
Five Vietnam pilgrimage destinations perfect for spiritual seekers: Booking.com
Booking.com, the world's leading digital travel company, has suggested some destinations in Vietnam for those seeking spiritual enrichment and a chance for reflection and connection, including Ba Den mountain and Bai Dinh pagoda.
Travel - Sun, February 16, 2025 | 10:59 am GMT+7
Malaysia takes the lead in data center development
Malaysia is making efforts to align with the global trend towards digitalization, which is driving demand for data centers, cloud computing, blockchain, and artificial intelligence (AI).
Southeast Asia - Sun, February 16, 2025 | 10:57 am GMT+7
WB sees Thai fiscal risks mounting due to spending surge
Thailand’s pursuit of an expansionary fiscal policy strategy to propel growth faces the risk of rising costs for elderly care, investment and the need to keep public debt level to sustainable levels, according to the World Bank.
Southeast Asia - Sun, February 16, 2025 | 10:41 am GMT+7
Vietnam mining stocks rally amid global trade tension
Shares of Vietnam’s mining companies have rallied since early this month, fueled by heightened global trade tensions following the start of Donald Trump’s second term as the U.S. president.
Finance - Sun, February 16, 2025 | 10:36 am GMT+7
Online purchase below VND2 mln may be exempt from Vietnam import tax
The Vietnamese Ministry of Finance has proposed exempting goods purchased through e-commerce platforms worth no more than VND2 million ($78) from import tariff, with an annual purchase limit of VND96 million ($3,781).
Finance - Sun, February 16, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Malaysia expected to remain magnet for FDI
Malaysia’s foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to remain robust in the long term, but there could be repercussions in the short term as investors hold back on their investment decisions amid heightened global uncertainties.
Southeast Asia - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 9:01 pm GMT+7
Laos to build $1.9 bln wind power plant to export electricity to Vietnam
The Lao Government and Chitchareune Construction - a Lao builder will jointly build the 1,200 MW Nong wind power plant, with an investment of $1.9 billion, to export electricity to Vietnam.
Energy - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 8:46 pm GMT+7
Malaysia needs more funding for semiconductor sector
Malaysia needs more funding for the implementation of the National Semiconductor Strategy (NSS) to enhance its competitiveness with neighboring countries, said Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.
Southeast Asia - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7
Thailand considers easing rules on income from overseas
Thailand’s government is considering easing personal income tax rules for individuals’ overseas income to encourage the remittance of those funds back into the country, said a senior official.
Southeast Asia - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 4:29 pm GMT+7
Nissan to close factory in Thailand
Japanese automaker Nissan has announced plans to close one of its two automobile factories in Thailand this year, following the collapse of merger talks with Honda.
Southeast Asia - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 4:10 pm GMT+7
Vietcombank leads Vietnamese banks in 2024 pre-tax profit
Vietcombank reported a pre-tax profit of VND42.2 trillion ($1.66 billion) last year, ranking as the most profitable Vietnamese lender, according to the Vietnam Banking Association (VNBA).
Banking - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 4:04 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's leading trade firm Hapro appoints new general director
Hanoi Trade Corporation (Hapro), a leading producer and exporter of agricultural produces in Vietnam, has appointed deputy general director Duong Thi Lam as general director, effective from March 1, 2025.
Companies - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 2:18 pm GMT+7
Private Vietnamese lender DongA Bank renamed Vikki Bank
DongA Bank, a private lender in Vietnam, has changed its name to Vikki Bank, with approval from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV).
Banking - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 10:59 am GMT+7
Korea's SK Group seeks partnerships in LNG-fired power projects in Vietnam
South Korean chaebol SK Group seeks to jointly build LNG-fired power plants in Vietnam and then develop facilities utilizing electricity generated by those power plants.
Energy - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 9:26 am GMT+7
World’s largest shipping line MSC docks at southern Vietnam port
Phuoc An Port, the largest seaport in Dong Nai province, on Thursday welcomed the first ship from MSC, the world’s largest shipping line, opening up significant opportunities for boosting international trade in Vietnam’s southern region.
Economy - Sat, February 15, 2025 | 8:17 am GMT+7
Vietnamese chemical-pharmaceutical industry eyes yearly growth of 8-11% by 2045
Vietnam's chemical-pharmaceutical industry is expected to achieve an annual growth rate of 8-11% by 2045, according to a newly-approved program on the industry’s development until 2030, with a vision to 2045.
Southeast Asia - Fri, February 14, 2025 | 11:28 pm GMT+7