USD price likely to hit VND25,450 by Q2/2025: StanChart

Standard Chartered forecasts Fed rate cuts, which should lead to a softer-USD bias over the next few quarters, will result in the exchange rate of USD/VND at 25,250 by the end of 2024 and 25,450 by Q2/2025.

In a report released on Thursday, the bank predicts the USD may face a period of weakness early in 2025 due to continued Fed rate cuts and uncertainty about policy implementation. But it is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of 2025 as fiscal and tariff measures under Trump 2.0 are clarified and implemented.

"Recent Fed rate cuts were expected to support Asian currencies, including the VND. However, stronger-than-anticipated US economic data has led to a less supportive environment for Asian FX markets. Trade policy uncertainties and inflation-inducing measures under Trump could further complicate currency stability in the region," it noted.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the country's central bank, set the daily reference exchange rate at VND24,264 per USD on Friday, up VND5 from Thursday.

With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is VND25,477 per USD and the floor rate VND23,051.

At the end of the day, major commercial banks Vietcombank and BIDV listed the buying rate at VND25,177 per USD and the selling rate at VND25,477, both up VND6 from Thursday.

Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered, commented that Fed moves will be key to the SBV's policy decisions.

"Lower USD rates may help to reduce capital outflows, while a sustained trade surplus and strong tourism should support the VND; however, low import cover remains a challenge," he commented.

Standard Chartered expects Vietnam will record strong GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025, with growth easing from 7.5% year-on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second half.

The country's economic growth has remained resilient, according to the bank.

Exports grew 14.4% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2024 to $369.93 billion, while imports grew 16.4% to $345.62 billion, with electronics exports and imports continuing their recovery, General Statistic Office (GSO) data shows.

The manufacturing sector has experienced solid growth, and relatively accommodative monetary policy may have also contributed to the economic recovery in the year to date.

Foreign investment appetite remains strong, as indicated by inward FDI flows. Disbursed FDI was estimated to reach about $21.68 billion in the 11-month period, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

The manufacturing and processing sector accounted for 64.4% of total registered FDI during that period, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the property sector’s share was 17.9%, up 89.1%.

Leelahaphan said: “We expect the SBV to hike rates by 50 bps in Q2-2025. The government’s desire for stronger economic growth may support low interest rates for now."

He added that inflation could rise again starting in Q2/2025, but he expects rate normalization in Q2.