Vietnam benchmark VN-Index could surpass 2,000 points: brokerage CEO

The prospect of stock market status upgrade and the expected profit growth of 15-18% among listed companies will be key drivers helping Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index reach the 2,000-point mark by the end of 2026 under a positive scenario, said Nguyen Quang Dat, CEO of An Binh Securities JSC (ABS).

The first trading session of the week recorded strong gains, with the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) rising 33 points, or 1.8%, to 1,858 points, driven mainly by the Vingroup-related stocks. However, foreign investors continued their net-selling trend, offloading about VND220 billion ($8.36 million) across the market.

During the previous trading week, they sold shares worth several trillions of VND (VND1 trillion = $37.99 million), with VHM of real estate developer Vinhomes and FPT of tech giant FPT alone experiencing net foreign outflows of around VND1.5 trillion ($53.99 million) each.

The prolonged net-selling activity by foreign investors has raised concerns among many market participants about the sustainability of the market's upward momentum, especially as domestic liquidity shows signs of weakening. However, speaking on the Financial Street talkshow, Nguyen Quang Dat, CEO of ABS, noted that this is not an unusual phenomenon.

According to him, foreign investors have been net sellers on the HoSE for an extended period, reflecting a broader trend across many emerging and frontier markets as the U.S. dollar remains strong and interest rates in the U.S. stay elevated. In an environment characterized by uncertainty, global capital tends to flow toward safer assets.

Nevertheless, the ABS CEO believed that a significant turning point is emerging. Once Vietnam’s stock market is upgraded to emerging market status under FTSE Russell’s roadmap, the structure of foreign capital inflows is expected to change substantially.

"Capital flowing into Vietnam will gradually shift from short-term speculative funds highly sensitive to global fluctuations, toward passive capital from ETFs and index funds, which tend to be more stable. This is a fundamental difference that many retail investors have not fully recognized," Dat emphasized.

According to the expert, Vietnam’s stock market is transitioning from a frontier market heavily influenced by investor sentiment into an emerging market with a more diversified investor base and a more sustainable capital structure.

In the short term, the market may still face volatility due to external factors. However, over the medium and long term, Dat believed the VN-Index is in the process of establishing a new valuation range, where patient investors with clear strategies will benefit the most.

Market entering period of strong differentiation

Regarding future prospects, the ABS expert noted that capital is no longer as inexpensive as before, making the process of selecting companies increasingly demanding.

"The era when all boats rose with the tide is over. The market will become highly differentiated between fundamentally strong companies and weaker ones. In fact, this is a positive sign of the market’s maturation," he said.

Dat outlined three scenarios for the VN-Index through the end of 2026.

In the optimistic scenario, which he considers the most likely, the market will grow steadily alongside FTSE Russell’s market status upgrade roadmap. The VN-Index could exceed 2,000 points by the end of 2026, supported by passive fund inflows during various upgrade stages beginning in September, as well as projected earnings growth of 15-18% among listed companies.

Under the neutral scenario, the index may fluctuate within a broad range of 1,650-2,000 points if the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to delay interest-rate cuts and investor caution persists in global markets.

Meanwhile, the pessimistic scenario would materialize if major external shocks occur, such as a U.S. recession, escalating geopolitical tensions, or disruptions within the global financial system.

However, according to Dat, Vietnam’s current macroeconomic fundamentals remain an important buffer that could enable the country to recover more quickly than many other markets.

Investment recommendations

Given the current environment, Dat recommended that investors proactively diversify their assets rather than concentrating all capital in a single investment channel. With global interest rates remaining elevated, they may consider allocating 60-65% of their portfolios to carefully selected stocks, 20-25% to high-quality corporate bonds or term deposits, and maintaining 10-15% in cash to take advantage of market corrections.

He said investors should focus on sectors with clear growth prospects. The banking sector may benefit directly from the market-upgrade process and credit growth; the industrial and logistics sectors are supported by foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and ongoing supply-chain relocation trends; and the retail and consumer sectors are expected to benefit from recovering consumer demand and the expansion of the middle class.

Dat noted that investors should maintain discipline in both capital deployment and emotional management. Instead of investing all funds at once, a gradual accumulation strategy can help reduce risk. Investors should also establish stop-loss levels in advance and strictly adhere to their predetermined investment principles.

"In short, the most appropriate strategy at this stage is to invest in high-quality companies, diversify risks prudently, and remain patient with a medium- to long-term investment horizon," he added.