VN-Index could reach 2,120 points in H2: broker

Strong economic growth, accelerating public investment, and a potential market status upgrade could help propel Vietnam's benchmark index to record highs, according to SSI Securities.

VN-Index could rise to 2,120 points in an optimistic scenario in the second half of 2026, supported by improving domestic liquidity conditions, a return of foreign capital, and progress toward a stock market status upgrade, SSI Research said in its latest strategy report.

In its H2 outlook titled "Building the foundation, creating the wave", the brokerage's research arm said the market is currently in an important consolidation phase before a potentially stronger uptrend emerges later this year.

SSI Research projects a base-case target of 1,920 points for the VN-Index, while a more favorable macroeconomic and capital flow environment could push the benchmark to 2,120 points.

Economic growth, public investment to drive momentum

The research house said Vietnam's economy remains on a solid growth trajectory, although the main drivers have shifted from exports and consumption toward domestic investment, infrastructure development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and institutional reforms.

SSI Research forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 8.5-9% in 2026, with H2 growth approaching 10%, driven largely by faster public investment disbursement and continued strength in manufacturing-related FDI.

Disbursed FDI reached $9.75 billion in the first five months of 2026, up 9.6% from a year earlier and marking the highest level in five years, according to the Foreign Investment Agency under the Ministry of Finance.

The firm noted that only 21.6% of this year's public investment plan had been disbursed during H1, suggesting significant room for acceleration in the coming months.

Public investment is expected to be a key driver of economic growth and investor sentiment, SSI Research said.

Inflation pressures are also expected to remain manageable. The research unit forecasts inflation could approach 4.5% this year, while oil prices are likely to have peaked in H1 and gradually ease toward year-end, reducing pressure on input costs and market sentiment.

Market upgrade could attract $1.4 billion

SSI Research argued that Vietnam's stock market valuation remains attractive despite recent gains.

The VN-Index is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13 times, roughly in line with its five-year average. Excluding Vingroup-related stocks, the market's forward P/E falls to around 10.3 times, significantly below historical averages.

The report said investment opportunities remain available across multiple sectors as capital continues to rotate between stock groups rather than leaving the market altogether.

A potential upgrade of Vietnam's stock market status remains one of the most important catalysts for the market.

SSI Research estimates that inclusion in FTSE Russell's Secondary Emerging Market category, expected to take effect from September 2026, could attract around $1.4 billion in passive inflows from exchange-traded funds and index-tracking funds over the 2026-2027 period.

That amount is equivalent to roughly half of the nearly VND65 trillion dong ($2.47 billion) in net foreign selling recorded during the first five months of the year, highlighting the potential to offset sustained capital outflows.

It added that the market-upgrade story is no longer limited to technical requirements. Efforts to improve free-float ratios, accelerate state divestments, and expand the investable universe are also enhancing Vietnam's attractiveness to global investors.

Risks remain

Despite its positive outlook, SSI Research cautioned that several risks could weigh on market performance. Interest rates are expected to remain elevated for longer as liquidity pressures within the banking system persist, potentially affecting the property sector and credit demand.

Asset quality in the banking sector has also shown signs of deterioration, with non-performing loans increasing in Q1. Meanwhile, margin lending continues to rise.

SSI Research estimates total margin debt in the stock market reached approximately VND424 trillion ($16.11 billion) by the end of the first quarter, up nearly 50% from a year earlier.

The report also highlighted risks stemming from the heavy concentration of index performance in a small number of large-cap stocks, particularly those linked to Vingroup.

According to SSI Research, recent gains in the VN-Index have not fully reflected the broader market's performance, as much of the advance has been driven by a handful of heavyweight stocks.

Even so, the firm said Vietnam's stock market remains well-positioned for a new medium- to long-term growth cycle, supported by robust economic expansion, accelerating public investment, continued FDI inflowsm, and an increasingly likely market status upgrade.

Under favorable macroeconomic and capital flow conditions, a VN-Index level of 2,120 points is considered an achievable scenario, SSI Research said.