Vietnam benchmark VN-Index unlikely to surpass 1,300 points soon: experts

Given foreign investors' continued net selling and domestic cash flow not sufficient to push the market up on its own, Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index will test the resistance zone of 1,280-1,300 points, according to experts.

The major index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), began the trading week after the Lunar New Year holiday (February 3-7) with a sharp decline, influenced by the U.S. announcement of import tariffs on goods exported from Canada, Mexico, and China.

However, it quickly stabilized and recovered on Tuesday when the U.S. declared a one-month delay in imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Then it continued to rise in the last three sessions of the week, and closed the week at 1,275 points, up 0.7% compared to the session before the holiday.

Notably, the VN-Index almost reached 1,280 points in the final session of the week on Friday.

Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy at Hanoi-based securities firm VNDirect, commented that the stock market was supported by positive domestic news, including the government proposing the parliament adjust the 2025 GDP growth target from 6-6.5% to 8% and raise the inflation aim to 4.5-5%.

"The government is very determined to promote growth, which implies that fiscal policies, especially monetary policies, will continue to be strongly expanded in 2025. This trend will have a positive impact on asset channels, including stocks. At the same time, macro data for January, released by the General Statistics Office on February 6, showed a positive start for the economy in 2025."

According to Nguyen The Minh, chief analyst at Yuanta Vietnam Securities JSC, the Q4/2024 earnings reports are reflected in the rising trend of many stocks. "The increase in corporate profits makes stock valuations cheaper, thus stimulating market liquidity," he said.

Another important factor positively affecting the VN-Index is the one-month delay in the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This led to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index, a recovery in global stock markets, and stabilization of domestic investor sentiment, he added.

VN-Index outlook

Although the VN-Index had a good trading week at the beginning of the lunar new year, Hinh cautioned that it will test the territory of 1,280-1,300 points, a very strong resistance zone that the index was unable to surpass in 2024.

Given foreign investors' continued net selling and domestic cash flow not sufficient to drive the market on its own, he believed that the market cannot immediately rise and will need to consolidate at this area for a while before strong supporting information arises.

"The VN-Index may move sideways to gather strength, and cash flow will quickly rotate between different stock groups to seek short-term opportunities. Investors should maintain a moderate proportion of stocks and consider restructuring their portfolios, prioritizing sectors with strong support such as public investment, construction, building materials, banking, textile exports, and seafood," Hinh of VNDirect noted.

Echoing Hinh, Minh of Yuanta remarked that the major index will not be able to surpass the 1,300-point territory immediately. He recommended that investors keep track on stocks with outstanding Q4/2024 earnings results, concentrated shareholder structures, and compelling stories such as those in the mining, transportation, and seaport sectors on the Unlisted Public Companies Market (UPCoM).