Vietnam commodity stocks surge amid Trump’s tariff storm

The stocks of mineral, rubber, steel and fertilizer companies in Vietnam have seen significant gains since the beginning of the year, as U.S President Donald Trump’s tax policies may influence global commodity flows, driving prices up again.

Mineral tickers continued their upward trend from late last year to reach new highs. KSV of Vinacomin-Minerals Holding Corporation once hit VND280,000 ($11) per share before dropping to around VND200,000.

Since January 20, MSR of Masan High-Tech Materials surged from VND10,800 to VND20,900 ($0.82) per share, nearly doubling in a month. BKC of Bac Kan Minerals skyrocketed from VND14,000 to VND85,000 ($3.33) per share in two months.

Other mining stocks also saw nearly double price increases from the beginning of February, such as YBM of Yen Bai Industry Mineral JSC rising from VND10,100 to VND19,000 ($0.74) per share and MIC of Quang Nam Mineral Iidustry Corporation (Minco) from VND17,900 to VND40,000 ($1.57).

According to analysts, the mineral stocks rose sharply in the context of the global trade war between the U.S., China, and neighboring countries intensifying after Donald Trump became U.S. President.

On December 3, 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a ban on the export of certain metals, such as gallium, germanium, and antimony, which are critical to production of semiconductor, renewable energy, and military equipment for the U.S. This decision was a response to the export controls the US imposed on Beijing on December 2, 2024, marking the third in the year.

In addition, Vietnam’s upcoming substantial investment in nuclear power plants is expected to benefit mining companies.

Among rubber stocks, PHR of Phuoc Hoa Rubber rose from VND50,000 to VND65,900 ($2.58) per share, DRI of DakLak Rubber Investment increased from VND11,800 to VND16,300, and DPR of Dong Phu Rubber climbed from VND36,800 to VND46,800, up over 30% within two months.

The fertilizer stocks have also seen significant growth. BFC of Binh Dien Fertilizer surged from VND35,600 to VND42,700 ($1.67) per share, an increase of 20%. DDV of DAP – Vinachem increased by 16%, and leading stocks such as DPM of Petrovietnam Fertilizer & Chemicals Corporation and DCM of Ca Mau Fertilizer rose by about 10%.

Tran Hoang Son, market strategy director at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), noted that a commodity price wave has formed since the beginning of the year. President Trump’s imposition of taxes on products from certain countries like China, Mexico, and Canada is influencing global commodity flows. In fact, global commodity prices have risen again, including fertilizers and rubber. This is a positive factor helping fertilizer and rubber stocks grow strongly in recent times.

According to TradingEconomics, the rubber futures price is currently at 203 U.S. cents per kilogram, the highest since October 2024. The Vietnam Rubber Association believes that rubber prices will remain high in the coming time due to a low supply period, despite potential weak demand from China due to concerns over U.S. car import tariffs proposed by Trump.

The steel group has reacted positively to Trump’s tax policies and the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s anti-dumping duties to protect domestic production. TVN of Vietnam Steel Corporation increased by 28% to VND9,600 ($0.38) per share, while HPG of Hoa Phat Group, HSG of Hoa Sen Group, NKG of Nam Kim Steel, and GDA of Ton Dong A Corporation surged by 10-15% in a short period.

President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported aluminum and steel, with no exceptions. The new tariff will take effect on March 4. Broker Saigon Securities believes that Vietnamese steel exports to the U.S. have already been subject to a 25% tariff since 2018, while countries like Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and the UK are exempt. The uniform tariff imposed by Trump will create an opportunity for Vietnamese companies to export steel to the U.S.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade decided to impose an anti-dumping tariff on hot-rolled coil (HRC) products from China, with temporary rates ranging from 19.38% to 27.83%. This will benefit HRC manufacturers while companies using HRC may face higher input costs.

Many variables in Trump’s tax policies

The Trump 2.0 trade strategy has been implemented, targeting countries such as Mexico, Canada, China, and recently, Europe.

Specifically, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% import tax on products from Mexico and Canada, effective in early March, despite both countries’ efforts to control border security and smuggling.

The VPBankS expert noted the large volume of goods, especially agricultural products from Mexico and Canada, entering the U.S. As the U.S. is facing a deficit in these agricultural products, if a 25% tariff is imposed on goods from Mexico and Canada, countries exporting agricultural products to the U.S., including Vietnam, could benefit.

He added that the tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada could impact certain industries related to car production. The automotive industry could face significant effects as many manufacturers have factories in Mexico and Canada. If the tariffs are applied, the price of cars imported into the U.S. could increase by $3,000-10,000 per vehicle.

Regarding Europe, Trump recently announced that he would soon impose a 25% tariff on all imports from the EU, including cars.

Son pointed out that Vietnam is in the top eight countries with the largest trade volume with the U.S. and the top four with the largest trade surplus with the country. The reason Vietnam has not yet been targeted by Trump is that during Trump 1.0, he aggressively imposed tariffs on China and other countries. However, due to such heavy tariffs, the U.S. needed a substitute for the goods that had been taxed. Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan (China) benefited from Trump 1.0.

Trump’s second-term tax policies are multi-purpose, but the U.S. still needs imports to maintain competitiveness. Therefore, between now and April 1, if Trump imposes tariffs on Mexico and Canada, it could present an opportunity for other countries, including Vietnam, to export to the U.S., he projected.

However, Vietnam could be impacted if the U.S. introduces reciprocal tariff laws (reciprocal between the U.S. and other countries) targeting those with trade surpluses or large trade volumes with the U.S, he noted.