Vietnam expects excess electricity through year-end

In contrast to the severe power shortages seen in May and June that affected mainly the northern region, Vietnam will have enough or even excess electricity in the last two months of 2023, according to the National Load Dispatch Center (A0).

The center has put forth two scenarios for electricity supply and demand over the rest of the year. In the first scenario, the average produced and imported electricity output in November will reach about 763.5 million kWh a day, a year-on-year increase of nearly 7.1%. The figure for the whole year is estimated at more than 281 billion kWh, up 4.75% from 2022.

In the second scenario, the amount of electricity produced and imported in November and 2023 will be approximately 782 million kWh and nearly 282 billion kWh per day, respectively.

With a spare capacity of 4,500 MW a month, A0 believes that the country will have excess electricity in the last two months of 2023.

In the North, according to A0's calculations, there will be enough or even excess electricity. The center forecasts the highest required capacity at 22,134-22,616 MW, while the available is 23,928-25,213 MW, meaning a surplus of about 1,794-2,597 MW.

Meanwhile, the capacity demand in the South is about 20,207-20,170 MW, lower than the available capacity of 22,401-22,956 MW. Thus, the reserve capacity in this area will range from 2,194 to 2,786 MW, even if electricity demand increases by 12% over the same period in 2022, when solar power sources cannot be utilized at night.

However, the center recommended that in the context of a sharp decline in domestic gas resources, to ensure the safety and stability of the southern power system, oil-fired power sources should be taken into account.

Overall, the country's electricity system will have nearly 4,500 MW of reserve capacity per month for the remainder of this year, A0 said.

Regarding electricity imports, the center said that China had agreed to sell 90-93 million kWh to Vietnam in November and December through transmission lines from Lao Cai province, but had not yet confirmed electricity sales using transmission lines in Ha Giang province this year. In addition, Vietnam will buy about 387 million kWh from Laos.

The country is expected to utilize 14.97 billion kWh of solar power and 11.4 billion kWh of wind power by the end of 2023. Sources from build-operate-transfer (BOT) thermal power plants will be mobilized based on prices and power needs.

From late May to mid-June, the northern region experienced regular power outages as consumption skyrocketed during the hot summer, while hydropower, one of the two main sources, posted falling output due to drought. Many factories in the northern region's industrial parks suffered power cuts for many hours over several weeks.

The World Bank estimated the economic cost of the May-June power outages at about $1.4 billion, equivalent to 0.3% of Vietnam’s GDP. The supply deficit also led to a $75 million revenue loss to EVN.

Vietnam's northern region suffered an estimated power shortfall of 1,600-4,900 MW in capacity in May and June as reservoirs dried up, according to the state utility.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that if hydropower reservoirs are low, northern Vietnam may lack 1,770 MW in power capacity, about one-tenth of its demand, during the peak dry season next year.