Vietnam forecast to become world’s second-largest rice importer by 2025-2026

Vietnam is projected to become the world’s second-largest rice importer in 2025-2026, only after the Philippines, as the country must ramp up imports to meet export demand amid falls in domestic production, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA estimates that Vietnam will import four million tons of rice in 2024-2025 and 4.1 million tons in 2025-2026, while the Philippines - a traditional buyer of Vietnamese rice - is expected to remain the world’s largest importer of rice with demand at around 5.5 million tons annually.

Vietnam is also predicted to surpass Thailand to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter. The country is estimated to export 7.9 million tons of rice for both 2024-2025 and 2025-2026, outpacing Thailand’s exports of seven million tons and 7.2 million tons, respectively.

India is forecast to remain the world's largest rice exporter with a projected annual volume of around 24 million tons.

According to the USDA’s report on Vietnam grain and feed annual published in April, Vietnam’s rice area and production are forecast to decline, as rice farmers switch to other more profitable crops.

To meet export demand, Vietnam’s rice exporters and millers have been supplementing domestic supply by purchasing paddy rice from Cambodia. Paddy rice accounts for 77% of Vietnam’s imports and is mostly supplied by that nation. India also supplies most of Vietnam’s milled rice imports.

Vietnam’s rice imports are not the result of domestic shortages, said Do Ha Nam, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), adding that the country mainly imports rice to serve re-export demand and for processing products such as noodles, vermicelli and rice paper.

Nam cited statistics which showed that Vietnam imported around 1.1 million tons paddy, equivalent to 600,000 tons of rice, from Cambodia in the first two months of this year.

Vu Vinh Phu, former deputy director of Hanoi Department of Trade, said that Vietnam’s rice exports are expected to remain robust for at least the next five years, despite emerging challenges from climate change, trade competition, and shifting domestic demand.

Vietnam’s rice exports reached a record 9.04 million tons in 2024, up 11% year-on-year, with an increase of 21% in value to reach $5.7 billion. Meanwhile, rice import totalled 3.7 million tons last year.