JPMorgan upgrades Vietnam stocks to overweight following US tariff deal

JPMorgan has upgraded Vietnam stocks to overweight after the country became the first Southeast Asian nation to reach a preliminary tariff deal with the U.S.

In its latest report, the U.S. investment bank stated that the U.S.’s 20% tariff on domestically produced goods would help Vietnam’s exports remain competitive against others.

“This, combined with strong economic growth (Q2 GDP near 8%), prompts us to upgrade Vietnam to overweight within ASEAN, with a new VN-Index base/bull target of 1,500/1,600 by year end”, analysts led by the bank’s Khoi Vu wrote in a research note.

Overweight stocks are defined as those that financial analysts believe will outperform its benchmark, sector, or a relevant index.

Vietnam’s accelerating GDP growth, supported by proactive fiscal stimulus despite global headwinds, further distinguishes it from other ASEAN economies, the bank noted, citing it as a key driver for stock market growth.

The bank analysts also pointed to other supporting factors, including a weakening U.S. dollar and low foreign investor positioning, which could drive stronger capital inflows into Vietnam’s equity market.

In addition, the rollout of non-prefunding in November 2024 and trading system improvement are expected to improve Vietnam’s chances of being upgraded by FTSE to Emerging Market status in the next review scheduled for September 2025, they noted.

The bank analysts also expected equity flows to reverse into Vietnam equities, which have seen significant risk-off over the past few months.

For now, Vietnam’s foreign positioning remains at a near record low, with about $1.3 billion outflows year to date and $2.3 billion since the U.S. election, they added.

Vietnam's VN-Index closed at 1,445 on Thursday, up by 60 points in five sessions.