Vietnam plans 14,000 MW thermal power cut by 2030

Vietnam should reduce thermal power production by 14,120 MW and boost renewable energy and LNG-fired power to achieve its zero emissions target, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed.

In the latest report on the national power development plan (PDP VIII) that it submitted to the government early this week, the ministry (MoIT) proposes that coal-fired power be reduced to 37,467 MW, or 25-31% of total capacity by 2030, and about 10% by 2045.

It suggests no new coal-fired power plants be approved after 2030, and some coal-fueled projects are converted to using liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Of the 14,120 MW proposed to be cut out in the PDP VIII, 8,420 MW is from projects of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) - 3,600 MW of state utility Vietnam Electricity (EVN); 1,980 MW of Petrovietnam, and 2,840 MW of mining giant Vinacomin. The rest will comprise 4,500 MW of build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects and 1,200 MW of projects for which investors are yet to be identified.

Removing the SOE projects will not be difficult because it would not involve legal risks and the initial spending on project development is small, the ministry says.

It notes that Samsung C&T (Vung Ang 3 project) and TATA Power (Long Phu 2 project) have already begun procedures to withdraw from their BOT projects upon prime ministerial approval.

For the 1,200 MW Quynh Lap 2 BOT project, the Prime Minister had assigned Posco Energy to explore its feasibility, but was yet to approve it as its investor.

Posco Energy has proposed that the coal-fired project in Nghe An province be converted to an LNG-fueled one with greater capacity.

To offset the reduction in coal-fired power, the MoIT proposes 14 GW of LNG-fired power and 12-15 GW of solar and wind power. This would mean LNG imports rising to 14-18 billion cubic meters in 2030 and reducing to 13-16 billion cubic meters in 2045.

Regarding solar power, the ministry proposes that the government allows continuation of approved but not-yet-operational projects until 2030. These projects have a total capacity of 2,428.42 MW, with a combined investment of VND12,700 billion ($543.5 million).

For projects in the pipeline without approved investors that have a total capacity of 4,136.25 MW, the ministry proposes that their duration be extended to beyond 2030. If solar power sees lower costs and the electricity grid is upgraded to absorb more, such projects can be developed faster, before 2030.

Overall, the latest draft PDP VIII sets total capacity at 148 GW (including the above-mentioned 2,428.42 MW of solar power) and the electricity output at 551.3-595.4 billion kWh in 2030.

Under the draft, the total capacity of power plants is at 120,995-148,358 MW (excluding rooftop solar and cogeneration sources), including 26,795-28,946 MW of hydropower (19.5%-22.1%), and 37,467 MW of coal-fired power (25.3%-31%).

29,880-38,980 MW will come from gas-fired power (24.7%-26.3%, including LNG), and 21,666-35,516 MW of renewable energy without hydropower (17.9%-23.9%; solar, wind and biomass power). Imported electricity is set at 3,937-5,000 MW (3.3%-3.4%).

The draft PDP VIII has to be approved by the Prime Minister before it begins implementation.

As of end-2020, the total installed capacity of electricity in Vietnam reached 69,342 MW. The electricity sales grew 9.6% annually in 2011-2020. EVN, the sole power distributor in Vietnam, reported electricity sales of 216 billion kWh in 2020, up 3.1% year-on-year, partly due to the Covid-19 pandemic.