Vietnam shipping, seaport stock rally driven by rosy outlook in 2025

Many shipping and port stocks have risen sharply since November on an optimistic outlook for the industry driven by increasing throughput and a shift in container shipping alliances in 2025.

During the Friday session, Vietnam Airlines (HoSE: HVN) rose nearly 2%. The Vietnam Maritime Corporation (HoSE: MVN), Vietnam Ocean Shipping JSC (HoSE: VOS), Saigon Port (HoSE: SGP), Port of Haiphong (HoSE: PHP), and Vietnam Petroleum Transport JSC (HoSE: VIP) also went up 5-6%.

Since early November, MVN has skyrocketed by nearly 76% to VND55,000 ($2.16) per share. VOS rose from VND13,500 to VND16,850 ($0.66) per share, and PHP surged to VND41,200 ($1.62) from VND27,000 per share.

However, stocks of Gemadept (HoSE: GMD) and Vietnam Container Shipping (HoSE: VSC) have not significantly recovered.

Rosy outlook in 2025

The surges in shipping and seaport stocks have been driven by many opportunities expected for the industry in 2025, said Dao Hong Duong, director of sectors and stock analysis with VPBank Securities JSC (VPBankS).

The container shipping rates remain significantly higher than the pre-Covid-19 levels. Events such as tensions in the Red Sea and port congestion in Hong Kong and Singapore have already been factored in, and ship owners have adapted by extending routes, the analyst said.

The volume of containers passing through global ports during the first eight months of this year increased by 20% year-on-year. Additionally, Trump’s second term could further boost the volume of goods for customs clearance. Reflecting on 2019, when Trump imposed tariffs on a wide range of goods, particularly from China, global demand spiked within three months as retailers rushed to stockpile cheaper goods, Duong noted.

Shipping lines are increasing their orders for new vessels, resulting in an expected 5.5% growth in global container supply next year. Global trade is expected to rise by approximately 3.1% next year, excluding any potential impacts from Trump’s re-election. However, an increase in container supply that outpaces demand could put downward pressure on container shipping rates.

In addition, the restructuring of shipping line alliances, set to begin in February 2025, is expected to significantly reshape vessel routes and schedules. Notably, some shipping lines, such as MSC, plan to prioritize docking at Vietnam's ports where they hold stakes. This shift is anticipated to increase demand for deep-water ports in 2025-2026, the expert stated.