Vietnam stocks move beyond the era of 'buy and win'

After a prolonged rally, Vietnam’s stock market is entering a phase of sharper differentiation, no longer a simple game where almost any purchase delivers gains.

Heading into 2026, while the macroeconomic backdrop and policy environment remain broadly supportive, analysts say investors will need to be far more selective, focusing on value-based strategies and risk management to capture further upside in the VN-Index.

Vietnam’s stock market reopens today after a nine-day Lunar New Year holiday. With regional markets such as South Korea and Thailand posting strong gains, many local investors are hoping the VN-Index will start the year in positive territory.

Historical data support such expectations. According to statistics collected by The Investor, in the first five trading days of the Lunar New Year, the VN-Index recorded gains in 15 years and losses in 10 years. The longest losing streak occurred between 2008 and 2010, with declines ranging from 1.99% to 7.12%. In the two most recent years, the index gained 0.93% in early 2024 and 0.80% in early 2025.

Optimism has been reinforced by strong gains in the early months of 2026, extending the rally from 2025. At one point, the VN-Index briefly surpassed the 1,900-point level before retreating amid profit-taking and volatility in interbank interest rates.

Still, capital flows have been increasingly polarized throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Data from Dragon Capital show the VN-Index rose 41% in 2025 to a record high, yet the year was described as “not easy to make money,” as gains were heavily concentrated in a handful of stocks such as Vingroup and Gelex. Shares of VIC and VHM accounted for nearly half of the market’s total gains.

Only 17% of listed stocks outperformed the VN-Index, the lowest proportion in 25 years. Excluding VIC and VHM, the index’s increase would have been about 20.65%.

In 2026, capital has shifted toward state-owned enterprises, with stocks such as VCB, BID, GAS, CTG and GVR taking over leadership from VIC and VHM.

Nguyen The Minh, head of research and retail client development at Yuanta Vietnam Securities, said many state-owned stocks and stocks of some sectors had traded at depressed levels for an extended period. As a result, their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios have fallen below historical averages, while 2026 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth is forecast to be strong.

“This divergence has created meaningful value gaps, and it is not surprising that the market is reassessing the growth potential of these stocks,” Minh said.

A supportive foundation despite divergence

Despite uneven capital flows, experts remain optimistic that Vietnam’s stock market in 2026 rests on firmer foundations, supported by policy initiatives, structural reforms, and expectations of a market status upgrade.

Le Duc Khanh, head of analysis at VPS Securities, said prospects for an upgrade to emerging-market status, along with the introduction of new financial products, are becoming clearer as the market’s growth potential expands. Overall market capitalization continues to rise, and valuations remain attractive for many stocks, even after sharp gains in some names.

“With policy reforms and market upgrades expected in 2026, Vietnam’s stock market is likely to see further state divestments, expanded foreign ownership limits, development of the foreign exchange market, and new trading mechanisms and products,” Khanh said. “This makes 2026 another promising year for market growth.”

Dang Nguyet Minh, head of research at Dragon Capital Vietnam, shared the view that equities remain the most attractive investment channel on a risk-adjusted basis. Supportive macroeconomic conditions, expectations of returning foreign inflows, sustainable corporate earnings growth and a market P/E of around 10 times - still low by regional standards - are key tailwinds.

She also expects continued reforms, including the establishment of a central counterparty clearing (CCP) mechanism, the introduction of same-day trading, and further easing of foreign ownership limits. These measures are seen as important catalysts to boost liquidity and enhance the market’s long-term appeal.

Strategy over speculation

With market divergence expected to persist in 2026, analysts say investors will need disciplined strategies to benefit from index growth.

Khanh said priority sectors this year include financials, consumer retail, energy, utilities, industrial real estate, and technology, and telecommunications. Benefiting from the Politburo's Resolution 79 on state economic sector development, capital is also likely to favor high-quality large-cap stocks with remaining foreign ownership room.

“The 2026 investment strategy should focus on value, quality and sector leaders such as GAS, PLX, VNM, BID, VCB, FPT, HPG, VTP, PNJ and GVR,” he said.

Nguyen Duy Anh, head of portfolio management at VCBF, stressed the importance of discipline, regular investing, and a long-term perspective, alongside diversification to manage risk. He added that allocating assets to a range of open-ended funds with different strategies could help optimize portfolios.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Hoai Thu, deputy CEO at VinaCapital, noted that Vietnam’s stock market remains highly volatile, making it difficult for retail investors to maintain discipline. For non-professional investors, she said, fund certificates offer the simplest way to gain exposure.

“Investors can research fund certificates through fund websites or distribution platforms, but selection should be based on a fund’s performance track record over multiple years,” Thu said.