Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index can reach 1,800 points: broker

VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), is likely to have an adjustment phase to move towards new highs, reaching 1,800 points, according to Nguyen The Minh, director of individual clients R&D at Yuanta Securities Vietnam.

After a week of sudden strong increase (August 11-15), VN-Index surpassed the historical peak of 2022. The market maintained a positive trading week with increased liquidity. VN-Index increased for four consecutive sessions, surpassing the psychological mark of 1,600 points towards the price range of 1,660 points.

However, due to selling pressure, the index rose 2.84% in the last session of the week to 1,630 points, above the psychological mark of 1,600 points. The groups of stocks that had good performance were insurance, securities, and banking.

Transaction value on the HoSE during August 11-15 set a new record of VND259.5 trillion ($9.87 billion). Transaction volume rose slightly compared to the previous week, averaging more than 1.75 billion shares per session. Foreign investors continued to net sell strongly to the tune of VND8,217 billion ($312.6 million) in the week.

In a talk with The Investor, Nguyen The Minh, director of individual clients research and development at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, said that the adjustment session last Friday (August 15) could be a warning of short-term risks for the stock market.

The financial group (banking, securities, insurance) had a good trading week last week, but the price to book (P/B) ratio of this group was higher than the five-year average and the cash flow showed signs of "FOMO" (fear of missing out).

Business results of HoSE-listed securities companies in Q2 were mainly supported by the proprietary trading segment. Their current P/B ratio shows that the bright spots from Q2 financial reports have been reflected in the price. Minh sees this as one of the short-term risks that need to be taken into account.

According to Minh, the second pressure on the market comes from foreign investors who continuously net sold over the last six consecutive sessions to the tune of VND8,687.9 billion ($330.53 million).

Since early July, as the U.S. tariff issue cooled down, foreign investors has returned to strong net buying in the Vietnamese stock market.

In addition, investors have expected a stock market status upgrade from "frontier" to "emerging" this October. Therefore, when foreign investors turned to net selling, domestic cash flow might weaken due to psychological impact.

The Yuanta analyst said: "Many investors expect such a market status upgrade to be attractive to indirect foreign investment capital, but in reality, we have to wait until October for FTSE Russell to officially announce the results."

In addition, Minh noted that global inflation is a warning factor. In the past week, "inflation" has become an increasingly popular phrase in the U.S. market and many other markets. Experts believe that inflation in the U.S. is affected by tariffs and is showing signs of increasing.

"The question for the coming time is whether the Fed will reduce interest rates as predicted or not? And if the Fed delays reducing interest rates, it will have indirect impacts on foreign capital flows in the Vietnamese stock market," Minh argued.

On the other hand, statistics show that September and October are not favorable times for the Vietnamese stock market. "2025 may be an exception when the stock market is supported by some factors such as a market status upgrade or the Fed cutting interest rates," he added.

Minh predicted that the market will tend to go up, but will slow down in late August and September, and then the VN-Index can reach the 1,800 mark. "The VN-Index needs to adjust to reach new high points," he stressed.

Therefore, he recommended that investors at this stage should reduce their margin ratio and take partial profits in financial stocks.

“For the market to increase, cash flow will still return to the financial group. In the scenario where the VN-Index has not broken through the 1,580 point mark, investors should reduce the ratio of financial stocks to 50-60% of the portfolio. In case the main index dips deeper than this mark, the ratio can be reduced to a lower level.”

Despite potential short-term volatility from increased profit-taking pressure following a high-margin phase in late July, VN-Index is expected to reach the 1,750-1,800 point range in 2026, according to leading broker Saigon Securities (SSI).

The main drivers stem from a robust profit growth recovery, supported by a rebound in the real estate market, increased public investment, a favorable interest rate environment, easing tariff concerns, and notably, expectations of a market status upgrade from "frontier" to "emerging" in October, SSI said in its August strategy report.