Vietnam’s exchange rate remains stable amid Fed interest rate hike

Vietnamese dong remains one of the most stable currencies in the Asia-Pacific region. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.
The U.S. dollar/Vietnamese dong exchange rate would remain stable at 22,600-23,050 in 2022 amid the global currency tremors induced by the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy, according to top broker VnDirect Securities.
Though the Fed’s interest rate hike has had impacts on Vietnam's multiple economic aspects, VnDirect analysts said they believed the "Vietnamese dong remains one of the most stable currencies in the Asia-Pacific region".
As the fundamental factors supporting the value of the Vietnamese dong remain robust in 2022, including a current account surplus and high foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar should have little impact on Vietnam's exchange rate.
“The Vietnamese dong may fluctuate in a relatively narrow band (+/-1%) against the U.S. dollar,” they stated in a report.
The broker expected Vietnam’s current account surplus to grow to 1.9% of GDP in 2022, up from an estimated deficit of 1.0% in 2021.
The country's foreign exchange reserves are also predicted to jump from $105 billion to $122.5 billion by the end of 2022, equivalent to four months of imports.
However, VnDirect noted that the tighter global financial conditions have reduced the global growth outlook, lowering demand for Vietnam's exports.
The rising U.S. dollar interest rate exerts pressure on domestic interest rates, raising the probability of a 20-40 basis point increase in the Vietnamese dong deposit interest rate in late 2022.
A strengthening U.S. dollar would also raise the costs of new loans and debt repayment obligations in U.S. dollar. Vietnam's foreign debt accounted for 39% of GDP by the end of 2021. Given tighter liquidity in the international financial market, raising funds and bearing higher interest rates would be challenging for the government and companies, according to VnDirect.
Foreign indirect investment (FDI) inflows may continue to be net withdrawn in the coming months due to the influence of the "taper tantrum". However, given the consistent net selling of foreign investors over the last two years, the impact of net foreign sales will be moderate since the market has planned ahead of time.
Meanwhile, FDI inflows into Vietnam would be less affected as the country remains an appealing investment destination in the trend of diversifying global supply chains, the securities house noted.
VnDirect believed that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) would maintain the appropriate monetary policy until at least the end of the second quarter of 2022 due to several reasons.
Firstly, domestic demand has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Secondly, despite rising inflationary pressures in the coming months, the average consumer price index in the first half of 2022 is predicted to be 2.5% year-on-year, significantly below the government's target of 4%.
Finally, the SBV still prioritizes the goal of maintaining low interest rates to support businesses. Any monetary tightening would only take place in the second half of 2022, probably in Q4/2022, and the increase, if any, would be limited, to around 0.25-0.5%.
Analysts expected the central bank to maintain high credit growth to support the economy's recovery. "Credit inflows will be prioritized to the manufacturing and service sectors, especially industry, import and export, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries."
The SBV will strictly control the credit inflows into high-risk sectors like real estate, securities, and build-operate-transfer projects, the broker added. "We maintain our prediction of high credit growth at 14% year-on-year in 2022."
Dragon Capital, one of Vietnam’s leading investment funds, holds the same view on the VND value prospects in the near future, due to an abundance of U.S. dollars from Vietnam's trade surplus and foreign investment capital, as well as the return of international tourists post-pandemic.
Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves have increased to $110 billion, nearly tenfold in the last decade, therefore, the SBV still has room to pursue the objective of preserving exchange rate stability.
- Read More
Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index likely to reach 1,800 points next year: broker
Despite potential short-term volatility from increased profit-taking pressure following a high-margin phase in late July, Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index is expected to reach the 1,750-1,800 point range in 2026, according to leading broker Saigon Securities (SSI).
Finance - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 6:22 pm GMT+7
Mobile World to list mobile phone, electronic home appliance chains by 2030
Mobile World Investment Corporation (MWG), a leading retailer in Vietnam, plans to conduct an IPO of and list its core retail chains The Gioi Di Dong (mobile phones) and Dien May Xanh (electric and electronic home appliances) by 2030.
Companies - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 6:04 pm GMT+7
Vietnam officially grants visa-free entry to high-profile foreigners
The Vietnamese Government has introduced a limited-term visa waiver scheme for foreign nationals who are "prioritized for the sake of the country’s socio-economic development".
Politics - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 11:32 am GMT+7
VinEnergo launches rooftop solar, battery storage projects in central Vietnam
VinEnergo Energy Joint Stock Company has signed MoUs to install rooftop solar power systems integrated with battery energy storage systems (BESS) with the VinFast automobile plant and two battery factories in the central province of Ha Tinh.
Companies - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 10:21 am GMT+7
Indonesia doubles lithium imports to boost EV battery production
Indonesia is accelerating plans to increase lithium imports, particularly from Australia, in a bid to fill gaps in the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain and realize its ambition of becoming a global EV manufacturing hub.
Southeast Asia - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 10:18 am GMT+7
Optimism rises for Thailand’s economy after US tariff cut
Thailand’s private sector has lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8-2.2%, up from the previous 1.5-2%, following the U.S. decision to reduce import tariffs on Thai goods from 36% to 19%.
Southeast Asia - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 10:16 am GMT+7
Foreign investors make up 4.27% of Vietnamese G-bonds trading value in July
Foreign investors accounted for 4.27% of the total trading value of Vietnamese government bonds (G-bonds) in July, with net buying at VND298 billion (nearly 11.4 million).
Finance - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 10:08 am GMT+7
Vietnam developer Taseco Land plans private share placement following HCMC bourse debut
Shortly after its listing on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) as TAL, Taseco Land, a subsidiary of Vietnam’s conglomerate Taseco Group, is seeking shareholder approval for a private share placement targeted at professional investors.
Companies - Sat, August 9, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Vietnam aims to finalize negotiations for Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant by August
The Vietnamese government targets completing negotiations for Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant in former Ninh Thuan province (now Khanh Hoa) by August 2025, and for Ninh Thuan 2 by May 2026 at the latest.
Energy - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 4:18 pm GMT+7
Software giant SAP invests $175 ml in R&D center in Vietnam
German software heavyweight SAP has officially launched a research & development center in Vietnam, with plans to invest more than €150 million ($175 million) over the next five years.
Industries - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 3:43 pm GMT+7
Carlsberg’s Phu Bai Brewery expansion in central Vietnam set to start brewing late this month
The expansion of Carlsberg’s brewery in Hue city, central Vietnam, with an investment of nearly $90 million, has entered trial runs and is scheduled to be inaugurated and begin full-scale production in late August.
Industries - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 2:43 pm GMT+7
Indonesia promotes nickel-based EV battery production
Indonesia is advocating regulations to encourage electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers to switch from the commonly used lithium-based batteries to nickel-based ones.
Southeast Asia - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 1:54 pm GMT+7
BRICS countries account for over 35% of Malaysia’s total foreign trade turnover
Malaysia’s trade with BRICS nations climbed to RM818 billion ($193.47 billion) in 2024, making up 35.2% of the country’s total global trade, according to the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI).
Southeast Asia - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 1:52 pm GMT+7
Vietnam consumer finance major F88’s stock hits ceiling price on UPCoM debut
The stock of F88 Investment JSC (F88), a leading consumer finance company in Vietnam, hit its ceiling price of VND888,800 ($34) on Friday, the first day of trading on the Unlisted Public Companies Market (UPCoM).
Companies - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 1:32 pm GMT+7
US tariff unlikely to dent Vietnam’s long-term FDI appeal: broker
The U.S. tariff gap between Vietnamese goods and those from four other Southeast Asian countries would not erode Vietnam’s competitive edge in manufacturing and investment, said Hanoi-based Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).
Economy - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 12:24 pm GMT+7
Land clearance for Vietnam's North-South high-speed railway project to start on December 19
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has requested localities to start land clearance en masse for the gigantic North-South high-speed railway project on December 19.
Economy - Fri, August 8, 2025 | 11:52 am GMT+7