Vietnam’s exchange rate remains stable amid Fed interest rate hike
The U.S. dollar/Vietnamese dong exchange rate would remain stable at 22,600-23,050 in 2022 amid the global currency tremors induced by the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy, according to top broker VnDirect Securities.
Though the Fed’s interest rate hike has had impacts on Vietnam's multiple economic aspects, VnDirect analysts said they believed the "Vietnamese dong remains one of the most stable currencies in the Asia-Pacific region".
As the fundamental factors supporting the value of the Vietnamese dong remain robust in 2022, including a current account surplus and high foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of the U.S. dollar should have little impact on Vietnam's exchange rate.
“The Vietnamese dong may fluctuate in a relatively narrow band (+/-1%) against the U.S. dollar,” they stated in a report.
The broker expected Vietnam’s current account surplus to grow to 1.9% of GDP in 2022, up from an estimated deficit of 1.0% in 2021.
The country's foreign exchange reserves are also predicted to jump from $105 billion to $122.5 billion by the end of 2022, equivalent to four months of imports.
However, VnDirect noted that the tighter global financial conditions have reduced the global growth outlook, lowering demand for Vietnam's exports.
The rising U.S. dollar interest rate exerts pressure on domestic interest rates, raising the probability of a 20-40 basis point increase in the Vietnamese dong deposit interest rate in late 2022.
A strengthening U.S. dollar would also raise the costs of new loans and debt repayment obligations in U.S. dollar. Vietnam's foreign debt accounted for 39% of GDP by the end of 2021. Given tighter liquidity in the international financial market, raising funds and bearing higher interest rates would be challenging for the government and companies, according to VnDirect.
Foreign indirect investment (FDI) inflows may continue to be net withdrawn in the coming months due to the influence of the "taper tantrum". However, given the consistent net selling of foreign investors over the last two years, the impact of net foreign sales will be moderate since the market has planned ahead of time.
Meanwhile, FDI inflows into Vietnam would be less affected as the country remains an appealing investment destination in the trend of diversifying global supply chains, the securities house noted.
VnDirect believed that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) would maintain the appropriate monetary policy until at least the end of the second quarter of 2022 due to several reasons.
Firstly, domestic demand has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Secondly, despite rising inflationary pressures in the coming months, the average consumer price index in the first half of 2022 is predicted to be 2.5% year-on-year, significantly below the government's target of 4%.
Finally, the SBV still prioritizes the goal of maintaining low interest rates to support businesses. Any monetary tightening would only take place in the second half of 2022, probably in Q4/2022, and the increase, if any, would be limited, to around 0.25-0.5%.
Analysts expected the central bank to maintain high credit growth to support the economy's recovery. "Credit inflows will be prioritized to the manufacturing and service sectors, especially industry, import and export, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries."
The SBV will strictly control the credit inflows into high-risk sectors like real estate, securities, and build-operate-transfer projects, the broker added. "We maintain our prediction of high credit growth at 14% year-on-year in 2022."
Dragon Capital, one of Vietnam’s leading investment funds, holds the same view on the VND value prospects in the near future, due to an abundance of U.S. dollars from Vietnam's trade surplus and foreign investment capital, as well as the return of international tourists post-pandemic.
Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves have increased to $110 billion, nearly tenfold in the last decade, therefore, the SBV still has room to pursue the objective of preserving exchange rate stability.
- Read More
Construction trio keen on building $1.5 bln expanded expressway in southern Vietnam
Three construction majors in Vietnam are interested in building an expanded expressway connecting Ho Chi Minh City with the Mekong Delta provinces of Long An and Tien Giang for an estimated VND38.6 trillion ($1.52 billion).
Infrastructure - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 8:18 pm GMT+7
Singapore, Germany upgrade relations to strategic partnership
Singapore and Germany have decided to elevate their ties to a Strategic Partnership to promote closer cooperation in areas of mutual interest such as security, artificial intelligence (AI) and clean energy.
Southeast Asia - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 8:01 pm GMT+7
Thailand’s rice shipment up 20% in 10 months
Thailand exported 8.37 million tons of rice in January-October, a year-on-year increase of 20%, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Southeast Asia - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 8:00 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s inconsistent legal framework poses problems for FDI sector: Deep C exec
Vietnam’s legal framework lacks consistency and the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector will soon face challenges related to the Law on Environmental Protection, says Bruno Jaspaert, CEO of Deep C Industrial Zones.
Economy - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 6:30 pm GMT+7
Vietnam shares sink on extended foreign selloffs
Vietnamese equities fell for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday as foreign traders extended their selling spree.
Finance - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 5:10 pm GMT+7
Germany’s household product firm QuickPack to invest $32 mln in Vietnam
Germany’s QuickPack, a specialist for household goods and hygiene products, will invest €30 million ($31.8 million) in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta province of Long An.
Industries - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 4:24 pm GMT+7
Malaysian millionaire willing to invest in convicted Vietnamese tycoon’s property project: lawyers
Malaysian millionaire Vincent Tan has evinced investment interest in a residential project owned by convicted tycoon Truong My Lan, chairwoman of Van Thinh Phat Group, lawyers for the latter have disclosed.
Real Estate - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 4:17 pm GMT+7
‘Bottleneck of bottlenecks’ continues to dog Vietnam's property, infrastructure projects
Limited consultations between state agencies and the parliament’s primary focus on wording are issues with Vietnam’s legal framework adversely affecting property and infrastructure projects, say experts and corporate leaders.
Economy - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 3:40 pm GMT+7
President Xi Jinping hastens construction of 3 Vietnam-China rail routes
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for more substantial cooperation between China and Vietnam, including the pacier implementation of three railway routes linking the two nations.
Infrastructure - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 3:08 pm GMT+7
Vietnam developers offer deferred principal payments, interest support to boost year-end sales
Vietnamese housing developers are offering several incentives including deferred principal payments and interest support to stimulate demand and boost liquidity as the year nears its end.
Real Estate - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 2:29 pm GMT+7
Australia's EQ Resources acquires TMG Group with Vietnam-based ferrotungsten factory
Australia-based EQ Resources Limited has acquired its fellow firm Tungsten Metals Group (TMG), which owns and operates the largest ferrotungsten (FeW) factory outside China.
Companies - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 11:00 am GMT+7
Techcom Securities becomes largest broker in Vietnam by capital base
Techcom Securities JSC (TCBS) has become the largest securities company in Vietnam by charter capital after finishing a rights offering last week.
Finance - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 9:11 am GMT+7
Vietnam airport operator ACV looks to better exploit non-aviation service potential: exec
Vietnam's airports operator ACV expects to earn $145 million from non-aviation services this year, accounting for around 18.83% of its total revenue, which is modest compared to other countries, said deputy general director Nguyen Duc Hung.
Companies - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 7:45 am GMT+7
The Investor to host seminar on removing legal bottlenecks for infrastructure, property investment
A seminar themed “Removing legal bottlenecks for infrastructure and property investment” will be organized by The Investor in Hanoi on Tuesday.
Companies - Tue, November 19, 2024 | 7:00 am GMT+7
Indonesia promises Asia-Pacific investors more incentives
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto recently told the press that he will create more incentives and expand special economic zones (SEZs) so as to lure investors from Asia-Pacific.
Southeast Asia - Mon, November 18, 2024 | 11:01 pm GMT+7
Indonesia, Brazil enhance aviation cooperation
Indonesia's state-owned aircraft manufacturer, Dirgantara Indonesia (DI), and Brazilian aerospace company Embraer have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to expand collaboration in the commercial aviation sector.
Southeast Asia - Mon, November 18, 2024 | 11:00 pm GMT+7