Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $80 bln: broker

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) sold about $9.4 billion in 2024 to stabilize the exchange rate, resulting in the current reserves of $80 billion, according to Viet Dragon Securities Corporation (VDSC).

The SBV's foreign exchange sales were divided into two phases. The first phase, from April to July 2024, saw the sale of around $6.5 billion and the second phase, from September to December, $2.8 billion.

The current reserves are equivalent to 2.5 months of imports, lower than the 3.3 months recorded at the end of 2023.

In its macroeconomic report reviewing the currency market trends in 2024, VDSC noted that the USD/VND exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations throughout the year, with heightened pressure on the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong, particularly in Q2 and Q4.

It indicated that the movement of the USD/VND exchange rate in 2024 would depend on the trend of the USD, with a correlation coefficient between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the USD/VND exchange rate at 0.67, slightly higher than the 0.63 recorded in 2023.

Compared to the beginning of the year, the SBV raised the central exchange rate by 1.9% to 24,320 VND/USD. The official exchange rate on the formal market rose by approximately 4.8% to 25,430 VND/USD, while that on the informal market increased by 4.3% to 25,840 VND/USD.

"The exchange rate fluctuations this year remain within the permissible range set by the SBV," the broker stated.

In addition to foreign exchange sales, the central bank also conducted open market interventions through interest rate management. Its net withdrawals increased during periods of high exchange rate fluctuations, such as in May-June and October-December.

For the whole of 2024, the SBV net withdrew about VND28 trillion ($1.1 billion), compared to a net injection of around VND66 trillion in 2023.

The SBV maintained unchanged policy rates, with the rediscount and refinancing rates set at 3.0% and 4.5% per year, respectively. Interest rates in the open market for repos and bill issuance by the central bank did not exceed the refinancing rate.

Meanwhile, the average overnight lending rate in the interbank market was 3.4% per year, about 1.2 percentage points higher than in 2023. When the overnight lending rate for VND drops significantly below the rediscount rate, the SBV often issues bills to push rates back up. This is also a measure to control the USD/VND interest rate differential and reduce pressure on the exchange rate.