Vietnam’s leading SOEs set low profit targets on market caution

A number of leading state-owned enterprises in Vietnam have revealed cautious profit targets for 2025, with some forecasting a decrease of up to 70% against 2024.

The national flag carrier Vietnam Airlines (HoSE: HVN) achieved impressive results in 2024, overcoming significant challenges from global economic volatility and the aviation market.

Its consolidated revenue is estimated at VND114.74 trillion ($4.5 billion), a 23% increase from 2023, while its pre-tax profit reached over VND7.32 trillion ($287.6 million), ending a four-year loss cycle since the Covid-19 pandemic began.

For 2025, Vietnam Airlines targets transporting 25.4 million passengers and 336,300 tons of cargo. Pre-tax profit is expected to reach VND2.18 trillion ($85.64 million) on a revenue of VND95.6 trillion ($3.76 billion), down 70% and 16.7% year-on-year, respectively.

The airline said it will focus on improving fleet utilization, enhancing labor productivity, and stepping up digital transformation. It also aims to expand international markets, improve customer service quality, and ensure maximum customer satisfaction.

The Airports Corporation of Vietnam (UPCoM: ACV) has set a revenue target of VND21.78 trillion ($855.63 million) for 2025, a slight year-on-year rise, but its pre-tax profit is expected to fall 11% to VND10.71 trillion ($420.74 million). This contrasts with the 2024 revenue and pre-tax profit growth rates of 8% and 35%.

Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC (UPCoM: BSR), the operator of Vietnam’s first oil refinery Dung Quat, seeks to achieve a revenue of VND107 trillion ($4.2 billion) in 2025, a 13.5% increase compared to its 2024 target. However, its post-tax profit is projected at VND751.6 billion ($29.53 million), a 34.55% decrease from its 2024 plan.

BSR’s business targets this year are based on an assumption of crude oil prices at $65 per barrel, down from $70 in 2024. Additionally, the oil market faced challenges in the latter half of 2024, particularly in Q3, with oil prices fluctuating downward due to concerns about an economic downturn and weak demand from China. The crack spread also decreased sharply.

Petrovietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer JSC (HoSE: DCM), which faced difficulties in the second half of 2024, estimates revenue of VND12.93 trillion ($508 million) and post-tax profit of VND1.02 trillion ($40.07 million) in 2024, down 1% and 8% from 2023, respectively.

For this year, DCM expects a slight revenue increase of 2.3% to VND13.2 trillion ($518.6 million) but a 25% drop in post-tax profit to VND764 billion ($30 million).

The company’s leaders held that the revised VAT Law, which applies a 5% tax rate on fertilizers, is expected to stimulate demand, benefit farmers, and allow domestic products to compete fairly with imports.

However, the company will face risks related to potentially high gas prices, which could increase operating costs, as well as the impact of climate change, leading to droughts, floods, and diseases, all of which could affect production activities, they added.

Thanks to rising rubber prices, the Vietnam Rubber Group (HoSE: GVR) expects a positive 2024 performance with consolidated revenue of VND26.3 trillion ($1.03 billion), up 6.5% from 2023, and post-tax profit of VND3.75 trillion ($147.32 million), an 11% year-on-year hike.

For 2025, assessed to be a challenging year, the firm targets a revenue of VND27.5 trillion ($1.08 billion) and a post-tax profit of VND3.93 trillion ($154.4 million), a rise of around 4.5-4.8%.

The year 2024 closed with an estimated GDP growth rate of 7%, exceeding the target range of 6-6.5%, placing Vietnam among the few countries in the region with high economic growth. This forms the foundation for the government's target of 7-7.5% GDP growth in 2025, with an aim of around 8% for the following year.