Vietnam's power demand to triple by 2050, driving sharp rise in LNG import: report

Vietnam’s electricity consumption is projected to more than triple by 2050, requiring a major expansion of LNG imports to maintain grid stability and support long-term economic growth, according to a new study.

The study, “Economic Evaluation of LNG Potential in Vietnam,” released by the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University (OSU) and Wood Mackenzie, warns that domestic energy supplies will be insufficient to meet the country’s surging needs.

Electricity demand is expected to climb from 330 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 1,100 TWh by 2050, fueled by an average annual economic growth rate of 4.6%, the report stated.

To address this gap, the report highlights that Vietnam should implement urgent policy reforms to attract the international investment required for integrated LNG-to-power infrastructure.

While Vietnam expects a rise in domestic gas production in the 2030s following discoveries in central Vietnam, the timeline for these developments remains uncertain. Analysts conclude that LNG imports will be essential to bridge the disparity between demand and supply, particularly for the country’s industrial hubs.

LNG demand is projected to soar from 500,000 tons per year in 2025 to 17 million tons by 2050. This growth is largely driven by the power sector, with southern Vietnam expected to account for approximately 65% of total demand. Gas-fired power generation specifically is forecasted to increase from 33 TWh in 2025 to 200 TWh by 2050.

To mobilize the scale of international capital required for LNG-to-power infrastructure, the report said Vietnam must implement urgent policy and regulatory reforms to improve project bankability.

Key hurdles include minimum dispatch guarantees, which investors need to ensure plants operate at levels sufficient to meet “take-or-pay” obligations under LNG supply contracts.

Analysts also flagged the lack of automatic fuel-cost pass-through mechanisms, noting that electricity tariffs must be able to adjust in line with volatile LNG prices without repeated regulatory approvals.

Currency and payment protections were another concern, with long-term contracts needing clearer frameworks to manage foreign-exchange conversion and repayment risks within tariff structures.

“Our analysis shows domestic gas and renewables help, but they do not close the gap on their own,” said Dr. James E. Payne, dean of the Spears School of Business at OSU. He noted that targeted reforms are the key to accelerating investment in these vital projects.

As Vietnam seeks to reduce its heavy reliance on coal, LNG is being positioned as a lower-emission bridge fuel that can provide “firm” power to balance intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar, they noted.

The study estimates that the lifecycle emissions for coal-fired power in Vietnam range from 224-242 gCO2e/MJ, whereas U.S.-sourced LNG offers a significantly lower intensity of 102-146 gCO2e/MJ.

“Our analysis shows domestic gas and renewables help, but they do not close the gap on their own,” said James E. Payne, dean of OSU’s Spears School of Business, adding that targeted reforms would be key to accelerating investment.

As Vietnam seeks to reduce its reliance on coal, LNG is increasingly positioned as a lower-emissions “bridge fuel” capable of providing firm power to balance intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar.

The study estimated lifecycle emissions for coal-fired power in Vietnam at 224-242 grams of CO2 equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ), compared with 102–146 gCO2e/MJ for U.S.-sourced LNG.

The United States is expected to play a growing role in Vietnam’s energy security as it expands its share of global LNG supply, the analyts noted. The report said around 1.5 million tons of U.S. LNG could be delivered to Vietnam as early as 2035, depending on market conditions and the finalization of long-term contracts.

Nhon Trach 3 and 4, Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power plants, came into commercial operations on January 5, 2026.

Located in the southern province of Dong Nai, the two plants have combined investment capital of about $1.4 billion and total capacity of 1,624 MW.

Petrovietnam's subsidiary PV Power is the investor, while a consortium of Lilama and Samsung C&T is the EPC contractor.

Once operating at full capacity, they are designed to generate more than 9 billion kWh of electricity annually, providing a large-scale baseload power source for the national grid, particularly in southern Vietnam.