Vietnam's stock market approaching status upgrade target; which stocks to attract foreign capital?

In a recent report, SSI Research preliminarily estimates that capital flow from ETF funds into Vietnam's stock market could reach up to $1.7 billion when the country is upgraded to emerging market status. Masan Group (MSN) is forecasted to be one of the destinations for this foreign capital flow.

Pre-funding rule removed for foreigners in bid for market upgrade

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has removed the pre-funding requirement for foreign investors before placing orders. This significant change marks a major milestone in the process of upgrading Vietnam’s stock market from a frontier market to an emerging one.

The change was stated in Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, which was issued on September 18 and will be effective from November 2.

SSI Research forecasts that Vietnam will be upgraded in the assessment scheduled for September 2025. With the upgrade to emerging market status, preliminary estimates suggest that capital inflows from ETF funds could reach up to $1.7 billion, not including capital from active funds (FTSE Russell estimates that total assets from active funds are five times greater than those from ETF funds).

According to SSI Research, VNM, VHM, VIC, HPG, VCB, SSI, MSN, VND, DGC, VRE, and VCI are stocks that could attract significant capital flows when Vietnam is upgraded to emerging market status. These are all leading blue-chip stocks, but they still have room for foreign investment. MSN and VNM are 2 Consumer Staples stocks among the list.

Besides SSI, J.P.Morgan also shifts their preference to Consumer Staples, which they believe should reap the double benefits of lower input costs and resilient earnings growth.

According to a J.P Morgan report, the government’s push and seasonality is fueling economic activity through H2/2024, which should spill over to stock market performance during the Q4/2024-Q1/2025 period.

“The strong growth vs. regional peers reinforces our Overweight (OW) on Vietnam within ASEAN, with key OW sectors: Banks (VCB, ACB, TCB), IT (FPT), and Consumer Staples (MSN),”the report stated.

The international financial institution believes the near-term tailwinds are favoring Staples stocks with: (1) Potential inflows from Emerging markets upgrade, (2) Lower USD reduces input costs, and (3) Resilient earnings growth and upgrade the sector to OW with Masan Group (MSN) as one of their top picks.

Using the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, J.P. Morgan has priced MSN at VND94,640 ($3.84) per share, with projected price-to-earnings (P/E) and enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratios of 39x and 12x, respectively, for 2025.

The SOTP method involves valuing each subsidiary or business division of a company individually, then combining these values to determine the overall company valuation.

Retail and consumer rewards

At the latest investor meeting, a Masan representative said WinCommerce recorded after-tax profits for the third consecutive month in August, with like-for-like (LFL) growth of the mini supermarket chain reaching over 10%.

This marked a critical milestone in WinCommerce’s retail strategy as innovation and operational execution have led to a path of sustainable profitability, he added.

“WinCommerce is entering a stage of profitability, and we expect this to accelerate as we deliver like-for-like growth, successful new store openings and drive acceleration of Vietnam’s modern trade market in the medium term,” said Danny Le, CEO of Masan.

Recently, Masan Consumer Corporation submitted a supplementary 2023 dividend distribution. The proposed cash dividend rate is 168% (VND16,800 per share).

Previously, Masan Consumer completed the dividend payments for 2023 at a rate of 100% in cash. Specifically, the company has advanced VND3,224 billion ($130.8 million), equivalent to 45%, in August 2023, and VND3,946 billion, equivalent to 55%, in July 2024.

The total dividend for 2023 that shareholders received from Masan Consumer is 268%, amounting to VND19,225 billion ($780 million), marking the highest payout to shareholders since going public.

In June, Masan received over VND1 trillion ($40.58 million) in dividend from Techcombank (TCB). It expects to receive trillions of VND in dividend from affiliated companies and subsidiaries this year.