Vietnam's stock market may extend gains in 2026 on macro tailwinds, earnings growth: broker

Vietnam’s stock market is expected to maintain its growth momentum in 2026, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions, accelerating public investment and an improving corporate landscape, said the chief executive of Techcom Securities (TCBS).

Nguyen Thu Hien, CEO of the largest brokerage in Vietnam by market capitalization, said increased public spending and a clearer recovery in the private sector would strengthen the country’s production and business base, providing a solid foundation for equity market growth.

Speaking at a conference held in Hanoi on Tuesday, Hien said the sustainability of market growth would increasingly depend on the quality of listed companies, as the market benefits from a growing supply of large-cap stocks and improvements in corporate governance, transparency, and risk management.

With corporate earnings growth projected at 15-20% this year, she said the outlook for equities remains relatively positive.

The initial public offering market is also gradually regaining momentum, with a rising pipeline of companies preparing to list. Expectations of a broader wave of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions could help attract fresh capital to the market, she added.

On foreign inflows, Hien said the impact of Vietnam’s stock market upgrade would be medium-term rather than delivering an immediate boost in 2026.

Estimates suggest Vietnam could attract about $25 billion in foreign inflows over five years following a market upgrade from frontier to secondary emerging status. For 2026 alone, inflows are forecast at around $2-6 billion, largely from passive investors such as exchange-traded funds, with a smaller share from active funds.

She said foreign inflows are expected to follow a relatively stable and predictable trajectory, aligned with Vietnam’s gradual inclusion in global equity indices and expanding representation of blue-chip stocks, which should support more sustainable passive investment.

However, Hien cautioned that higher global interest rates and currency volatility have raised funding costs for foreign investors, potentially prompting more cautious assessments of returns in Vietnam compared with home markets. As a result, foreign capital is likely to remain selective.

Under a scenario where market valuations settle at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 13, Hien said Vietnam’s stock market could still post gains of 15-20% in 2026, making a move by the benchmark VN-Index toward 2,000 points achievable.

By sector, she highlighted financials and banking as key beneficiaries, citing their central role in the economy and improving risk management. Energy and industrial manufacturing are also positioned to gain from GDP growth and public investment, while retail and consumer sectors should benefit from Vietnam’s young population and continued economic expansion.

In 2025, VN-Index hiked around 40%, or over 500 points, to record highs, boosted by the rally of large-cap stocks such as VIC, VHM, VRE, and banking/oil-gas tickers.