Vietnam's trade ministry lifts e-commerce growth forecast to 25.5%

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has raised its annual e-commerce growth target for the business-to-consumer (B2C) model to 25.5%, up from the earlier projection of 20-22%, in light of the sector’s stronger-than-expected performance.

The ministry anticipates third-quarter growth will hit 27.67%, 5.67 percentage points higher than the previous estimate.

At the start of 2025, the industry had set a target of 20-22%. Yet, figures from the first eight months show growth of 25-27%, outpacing forecasts by 3-7 percentage points. This reflects both the post-pandemic momentum of the market and the impact of supportive policies, alongside changes in consumer behaviour.

During the first half of the year, actual growth was adjusted from 19% to 20%. July growth climbed to 25% against the earlier forecast of 21%, while August and September each reached 28%, compared with 22% in the previous scenario. This pushed the average for the third quarter to 27.67%.

For the final quarter, October is projected at 32% versus the initial 23%, November at 34% compared to 24%, and December at 35% against 28%. Consequently, average growth in Q4 is forecast at 33.67%, nearly 8 points higher than previously estimated.

With an average of 25-27% growth in the first eight months, e-commerce is providing a strong buffer for the economy, particularly as traditional sectors such as manufacturing and exports face external pressures.

The revised B2C target of 25.5% highlights e-commerce’s role not only in boosting trade and services circulation but also in generating jobs in technology, logistics, transport, and digital finance, thereby helping Vietnam edge closer to its overall growth goal of 8.3-8.5%.