ADB raises Vietnam GDP growth prediction to 6.4% in 2024, 6.6% in 2025

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised up Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.4% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025, according to the December edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

The figures are higher than the 6% and 6.2% predicted in its September edition of the report, respectively.

Vietnam’s figures for the two years are the highest in Southeast Asia and the second-highest among developing Asian counties, only behind India with 6.5% in 2024 and 7% in 2025.

The robust rebound in export-led manufacturing and trade, bolstered by the resilient U.S. economy, is expected to continue supporting Vietnam’s GDP growth.

Accelerated public investment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to further stimulate domestic demand amid increasing external headwinds, the ADB clarified.

Strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures drove Vietnam’s economic growth to 6.8% for the first three quarters of 2024.

Despite the severe impacts caused by super typhoon Yagi in various parts of the country, the swift government response and recovery efforts limited the impacts on growth, the ADB commented.

Besides, the ADB revised down Vietnam’s inflation this year to 3.9%. The bank attributed the projection to Vietnam's “upward adjustments in government-controlled prices of education and healthcare, along with rising wages earlier in the year.”

The country’s prudent and flexible monetary policy, combined with subdued global oil prices due to the global economic slowdown, is expected to keep inflation in check at 4% in 2025.

Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said at a seminar in mid October that Vietnam is projected to grow 7% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, the fastest among ASEAN-6 countries.

In the same month, Standard Chartered Bank revised up its forecast for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.8% from the previous 6%. The bank retains its 2025 forecast at 6.7%.