Corporate credit demand in Vietnam expected to keep rising this year

Corporate credit demand in Vietnam will remain high in 2025, especially in areas like public investment and manufacturing, which are the country’s key growth drivers this year, experts forecast.

In a recent banking industry analysis report, Mirea Asset Securities (MASVN) analysts said that the corporate customer segment could still grow higher by the end of 2025, but there would be relative differentiation in banks' portfolios.

According to the analysts, the forecast was made based on what happened in 2024, when data published by banks showed that corporate customer credit was still relatively high compared to that of individual customers.

Credit for the individual customer segment last year slowed. While GDP last year recorded a strong recovery, household income growth remained low.

Retail growth data shows that consumption slowed to 9% year-on-year last year, slightly lower than 9.4% in 2023. The slowdown reflected consumers' cautious sentiment.

In contrast, credit for the corporate customer segment was high last year and is expected to keep rising this year, especially in areas like public investment and manufacturing.

The real estate market is expected to continue to thrive in 2025 due to increased supply, although individual customer credit growth is unlikely to make a breakthrough in the short term.

Tran Minh Hoang, director of the Vietcombank Securities’ analysis and research division, said he believes that credit this year will flow into sectors that are drivers of economic growth, such as manufacturing, public investment and exports.

MASVN analysts said that credit growth will continue to be a key target in Vietnam’s new development policy, after the National Assembly approved adjusting the GDP growth target for 2025 to a minimum of 8%. The SBV has so far proactively allocated higher credit growth for commercial banks in line with this target.

Though the SBV plans for a credit growth rate of 16% this year, analysts forecast a lower rate of 14.7%.

As for interest rates, which significantly affect credit growth, analysts said they may increase by about 0.4-0.5 percentage points, mainly in the second half of 2025.

Interest rates bottomed out at the end of the first quarter of 2024 and are currently increasing slightly, but remain about 1.5 percentage points lower than at the beginning of 2023.

Despite economic challenges, interest rates are still well controlled thanks to the Government's directives as well as directional interest rates of state-owned banks.

Experts expect that borrowing costs will continue to remain appropriate, supported by banks’ relatively stable profits and expectations of additional capital for the state-owned banks, with an aim of ensuring growth and stability for the financial system.