Exports of 'right’ products likely to shield Vietnam from trade headwinds in 2026: HSBC

Exports of the ‘right’ products, including electronics, amid AI-driven demand and widening market share in the U.S. are likely to shield Vietnam from some trade headwinds in 2026, according to HSBC analysts.

"Demand for AI-driven chips amid the escalation of the U.S.-China chip race has reshaped the global semiconductor landscape. Therefore, there’s no better time to export the electronics products as a way to shield from the tariff impact. Fortunately, Vietnam is in the league, though its exports are still concentrated in low-end consumer electronics," the analysts explained in a report released on Tuesday.

They expect the emphasis on infrastructure development to continue in the new year, accelerating key mega projects and lifting growth. National GDP growth is expected to hit 6.7% in 2026.

While 2025 was rollercoaster year for Vietnam, it defied tariff concerns with GDP growth as high as 8.02%, according to government data.

"With the second-fastest growth in 15 years, this likely easily placed Vietnam as the growth champion, not only in ASEAN, but also in Asia, in 2025," the bank's analysts wrote.

Although Vietnam was widely expected to be one of the economies with high tariff risks, its trade was not disrupted, but ballooned to a record high of $928 billion instead.

The country's trade surplus also remained sizeable. Despite facing a 20% headline tariff from the US, Vietnam captured even more market share for certain goods, such as footwear, textiles and consumer electronics.

A key political event to watch in 2026 is Vietnam’s 14th National Party Congress, due to be held on January 19-25.

"Regardless of the outcome of the leadership reshuffle, economic policy is widely expected to be consistent and unlikely to change significantly," the analysts wrote.

All eyes will also be on the country’s socioeconomic goals for the next five to 10 years.

In November, the National Assembly, the country's legislative body, set the 2026 growth target at “at least 10%” with a GDP per capita of $5,400-5,500.

"Note that the double-digit growth target is on top of the high GDP growth of 8% last year, requiring a hard push to achieve broad-based growth, encompassing trade outperformance, significant investments and strong consumption," the HSBC analysts added.

EuroCham's Business Confidence Index (BCI) in Q4/2025 recorded its highest level in seven years, marking "a decisive shift in European business sentiment".

"Rising sharply to 80.0 points, the index signals a return to strong confidence after nearly a decade marked by disruption, volatility, and prolonged neutrality – even as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the international environment," EuroCham stated in a release on Tuesday.

As confidence improves, European businesses are entering 2026 with a clear set of strategic priorities. Business development and portfolio diversification top the agenda, cited by 50% of respondents.

Talent remains a close second, with 45% prioritizing retention and recruitment, underscoring continued pressure on skilled labour availability and the importance of human capital in sustaining growth. At the same time, 41% of respondents highlight greater use of technology, automation, and AI, pointing to a parallel focus on efficiency, productivity, and long-term competitiveness.

European businesses recognize ongoing challenges, particularly administrative complexity and global volatility, but the data shows that Vietnam’s growth momentum, reform trajectory, and investment fundamentals continue to underpin strong optimism.

As businesses enter 2026, they do so with measured optimism, backed by numbers, reforms in motion, and a growing conviction that Vietnam is not only resilient – but increasingly central to their long-term growth strategies.