HSBC backtracks call of further rate cut by Vietnam central bank

By Minh Anh
Thu, October 12, 2023 | 7:43 pm GMT+7

HSBC has removed its earlier call of another 50 basis-point rate cut by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the country’s central bank, in the rest of this year as the conditions that previously warranted the move have dissipated.

Vietnam’s trade turnover fell 11% year-on-year to $497.66 billion in the first nine months of 2023, according to the General Statistics Office. Photo courtesy of the government's news portal.

Vietnam’s trade turnover fell 11% year-on-year to $497.66 billion in the first nine months of 2023, according to the General Statistics Office. Photo courtesy of the government's news portal.

In its latest Vietnam update titled “Light at the end of the tunnel,” HSBC highlighted that Vietnam’s economy has passed its trough, but upside risks to inflation have resurfaced, prompting the bank to upgrade its 2023 average inflation forecast to 3.4% from 3.2% previously, below the government’s 4.5% ceiling.

“Given an ongoing recovery, rising inflation, and resumed FX risks, we believe conditions no longer warrant our earlier call of a final 50bp rate cut. In other words, we now expect the SBV to hold its policy rate steady at 4.5% throughout 2024, barring any major external shocks,” HSBC researchers wrote.

They explained that food prices in Vietnam had risen around 3% month-on-month for two straight months, pushing year-on-year inflation to overshoot 10%. While Vietnam’s trade benefits from higher rice prices, international prices have pushed up the local prices of staple goods. Meanwhile, Vietnam is sensitive to the global oil market’s recent volatility.

They said they do not expect a repeat of what happened last October, when a rally in the USD/VND rate propelled the SBV to hike rates aggressively. This is because Vietnamese dong's fundamentals have improved.

For example, its current account surplus has almost returned to its previous peak of close to 5% of GDP, on a rolling basis, thanks to a robust trade surplus, strong remittances, and rising tourism receipts.

Vietnam’s GDP growth gained momentum throughout quarters this year, hitting 5.33% in the third quarter, compared to 3.28% in Q1 and 4.05% in Q2. In the nine months through September, the local economy expanded 4.24%.

HSBC has maintained its 2023 growth forecast for Vietnam at 5%, with a strengthening rebound in Q4. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2023 forecast for Vietnam unchanged from its April projection at 4.7%. The World Bank revised down its prediction to 4.7% in 2023.

Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong said Sunday that Vietnam’s economic growth may surpass 5% this year, below the mandated 6.5% but fairly high in comparison with many countries in the region and the world.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vietnam to have 34 cities, provinces, instead of 63: Party chief 

Vietnam to have 34 cities, provinces, instead of 63: Party chief 

Vietnam plans to reduce the number of cities and provinces from the current 63 to 34, as part of a scheme to streamline its administrative apparatus, Party General Secretary To Lam said Friday.

Politics - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 4:18 pm GMT+7

Thailand’s digital ad spending predicted to grow 10% in 2025

Thailand’s digital ad spending predicted to grow 10% in 2025

Thailand’s online advertising spending in 2025 is forecast to grow 10% to THB35 billion (over $1 billion), based on a gradual rebound of the local economy and intense competition in the digital industry, according to the Digital Advertising Association of Thailand (DAAT).

Southeast Asia - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 3:39 pm GMT+7

US Defence Secretary reaffirms alliance commitment during visit to Philippines

US Defence Secretary reaffirms alliance commitment during visit to Philippines

U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth reaffirmed Washington’s strong commitment to its alliance with the Philippines during his official visit to the Southeast Asian country on Friday.

Southeast Asia - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 3:32 pm GMT+7

Southern Vietnam province Tra Vinh okays five more wind power projects

Southern Vietnam province Tra Vinh okays five more wind power projects

Vietnam's southern coastal province of Tra Vinh has granted in-principle approvals for five wind power plant projects, with a total investment of over VND 13.8 trillion ($540 million).

Southeast Asia - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 3:29 pm GMT+7

Vietnam, South Africa eye stronger air logistics links

Vietnam, South Africa eye stronger air logistics links

Vietnam and South Africa are seeking to strengthen air logistics cooperation to meet rising trade and transportation demands.

Southeast Asia - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 3:24 pm GMT+7

Net profit of Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park nearly doubles in 2024

Net profit of Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park nearly doubles in 2024

Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park J.V. Co., Ltd, or VSIP, the largest industrial park developer in Vietnam, posted VND3.28 trillion ($128.37 million) in net profit in 2024, up nearly 93% year-on-year.

Industrial real estate - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 3:18 pm GMT+7

Trump Organization eyes golf course, hotel projects in Vietnam

Trump Organization eyes golf course, hotel projects in Vietnam

A consortium between the Trump Organization and its partner in Vietnam plans multiple investments worth billions of dollars in golf courses, hotels and real estate projects Vietnam, Reuters quoted the consortium’s spokesman as saying.

Real Estate - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 11:06 am GMT+7

Livestock major Dabaco invests in 8.2-hectare dry port in northern Vietnam

Livestock major Dabaco invests in 8.2-hectare dry port in northern Vietnam

Vietnam’s leading livestock firm Dabaco has invested in an 8.2-hectare inland container depot (ICD) in Bac Ninh province, an emerging manufacturing hub in northern Vietnam and home to a Samsung Electronics plant.

Infrastructure - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 10:51 am GMT+7

Phuong Tien Minh appointed CEO of life insurer FWD Vietnam

Phuong Tien Minh appointed CEO of life insurer FWD Vietnam

Hong Kong-headquartered FWD Group Holdings Limited has appointed Phuong Tien Minh as CEO of life insurer FWD Vietnam, effective Thursday, March 27.

Finance - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 10:40 am GMT+7

Vietnam's Deputy PM backs formation of free trade zone in Binh Dinh province

Vietnam's Deputy PM backs formation of free trade zone in Binh Dinh province

Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Chi Dung on Friday expressed his support for an early study of a free trade zone in Phu My Port area, the south-central province of Binh Dinh.

Economy - Sat, March 29, 2025 | 8:25 am GMT+7

Vietnam offers numerous advantages for Skoda Auto's investment: executive

Vietnam offers numerous advantages for Skoda Auto's investment: executive

Vietnam offers a range of advantages for investment by Czech automaker Skoda Auto, including its seaport system, logistics infrastructure, and skilled labor, the company’s chairman and CEO Klaus Zellmer said on Thursday.

Industries - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 7:33 pm GMT+7

Vietnam plans to cut import tax for LNG to 2%

Vietnam plans to cut import tax for LNG to 2%

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance is drafting a decree on preferential import tax for some products, including a proposal of 2% tax rate for LNG.

Energy - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7

AES’s $2.1 bln LNG power project needs solutions to meet deadline: Vietnam authorities

AES’s $2.1 bln LNG power project needs solutions to meet deadline: Vietnam authorities

The 2,250-MW Son My 2 LNG-fired power project, invested by the U.S.'s AES and state-run Petrovietnam subsidiary PV Gas, “needs solutions” to meet its deadline.

Energy - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 4:06 pm GMT+7

Over $9 bln pledged for investment projects in central Vietnam province Binh Dinh

Over $9 bln pledged for investment projects in central Vietnam province Binh Dinh

Binh Dinh province on Friday handed over MoUs on investment cooperation, in-principle approvals and investment registration certificates to 62 projects worth over VND231 trillion ($9.03 billion).

Industries - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 4:05 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's giant Vingroup eyes mullti-billion-dollar renewable, LNG power projects

Vietnam's giant Vingroup eyes mullti-billion-dollar renewable, LNG power projects

Vietnam's leading private conglomerate Vingroup is seeking the government's permission to develop seven renewable energy projects worth $20-25 billion and a $5.5 billion LNG-fired power project from 2025-2030.

Energy - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 1:09 pm GMT+7

While the buzz around a market upgrade is back, who is this milestone for?

While the buzz around a market upgrade is back, who is this milestone for?

A key issue for the Vietnamese stock market is the underdevelopment of the institutional investor base. The dominance of retail investors can create heightened volatility, which, in turn, reduces the incentive for high-quality companies to list on the stock exchange, writes Gary Harron, head of securities services at HSBC Vietnam.

Consulting - Fri, March 28, 2025 | 10:31 am GMT+7