IMF revises down Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 6.1%

Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 6.1% in 2024 and 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) October edition of its World Economic Outlook report, released on Tuesday.

The IMF 2024 forecast for Vietnam was raised from 5.8% in the April edition of the report. The figure for 2025 is lower than the previous projection of 6.5%.

The IMF's Vietnam projection for 2025 is among the highest ones in Asia, only behind Bhutan with 7.2%, India with 6.5%, Mongolia with 7%, and on par with the Philippines.

The IMF's projection of 6.1% is below the government's target of 7-7.5%, put forward by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the inauguration of the eighth session of the National Assembly on Monday.

Chinh said Vietnam’s GDP is expected to hit $500 billion in 2025, ranking 33rd worldwide, up from $433 billion and 34th position in 2023 and $346 billion and 37th position in 2020.

Additionally, the IMF anticipates Vietnam’s inflation at 4.1% in 2024, in line with the country’s target of 4-4.5%, and 3.5% in 2025.

It also expects Vietnam’s unemployment rate at 2.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, among the lowest in Asia. The respective figures for Singapore are 1.9% and 1.9%, and 1.1% and 1% for Thailand.

Regarding the global prospect, the IMF said “global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming” at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025.

In emerging markets and developing economies, conflicts, civil unrest, extreme weather events, and disruptions to the production and shipping of commodities, especially oil, have led to downward revisions to the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia and for sub-Saharan Africa.

These have been compensated for by upgrades to the forecast for emerging Asia, where surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth, the IMF highlighted.