Leading industrial park developer Becamex to gain from Binh Duong province’s merger into HCMC: broker

Becamex IDC Corp, a leading urban and industrial park developer based in Binh Duong, is expected to benefit from the province’s merger into Ho Chi Minh City, with many new development opportunities, according to Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).

According to the broker, the merger of Binh Duong, Ba Ria-Vung Tau, and HCMC, effective from Thursday after a parliament approval, would create a mega-city - a key economic hub with superior population scale, infrastructure, and investment appeal. This would serve as a major catalyst for Binh Duong’s real estate market recovery.

Becamex IDC, listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) as BCM, is expected to gain significantly due to its large land reserves in the core merger area.

Most of its urban development projects are in Thu Dau Mot and Di An towns, especially the flagship Binh Duong New City project, which spans 1,000 hectares. After the merger, these areas could be redefined as extended centers of HCMC, driving demand for housing and increasing real estate value.

Furthermore, Becamex would fall under the jurisdiction of the HCMC People's Committee, positioning it as a key infrastructure developer in the country’s largest economic center.

On May 19, 2025, Becamex broke ground on the Cay Truong and Bau Bang MR industrial parks, adding 840 hectares of commercial land amid a context that its existing IPs have over 80% occupancy rates. VCBS expected these IPs to become operational in 2026, contributing significantly to the firm’s growth from 2026 to 2028.

Following the merger, with Binh Duong becoming the industrial center of the HCMC-Binh Duong-Vung Tau region, HCMC’s annual industrial land use quotas could be allocated to Binh Duong. Moreover, investment incentives and preferential policies may be more aggressively applied.

New industrial park supply in Binh Duong currently falls short of leasing demand. However, due to tariff-related factors and the expected surge in IP supply, VCBS forecast rental price growth potential for 2026-2028 to be only 0-3%.

In the upcoming period, the broker expected performance at the Binh Duong New City project to improve, especially with the planned Suoi Tien-Thu Dau Mot metro line (expected completion in 2028), which will shorten travel time to HCMC and increase residential appeal in the context of rising HCMC property prices.

Additionally, the Becamex Green City project in Thu Dau Mot town launched sales in Q1/2025, covering 18 hectares with 742 lots and an average price of VND35 million ($1,342) per square meter (excluding construction costs). VCBS projected the development will generate about VND3.2 trillion ($122.72 million) in cash flow over the next 1-5 years.

With its remaining commercial land bank, Becamex is expected to transfer about 15 hectares of commercial land annually, bringing in around VND3.5 trillion in cash flow per year, helping ease the burden of financial debt, it said.

However, with the U.S. applying relatively high preliminary reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam, VCBS warned that Becamex’s business results and land lease sales could face some pressure in 2025.

Nevertheless, the brokerage firm did not anticipate a massive wave of FDI withdrawal from Vietnam. Moreover, IPs with prime locations and synchronized infrastructure still retain strong investor appeal.

In the long term, Binh Duong’s FDI outlook remains positive thanks to its well-developed transport and logistics infrastructure, including inland container depots (ICDs) and highway networks that conveniently link to HCMC, seaports, and major regional airports.

Infrastructure investment in southern Vietnam, including Binh Duong, is regaining momentum during the 2025-2028 period. Notably, the HCMC-Thu Dau Mot-Chon Thanh Expressway, once completed, will be a major driver of investment in peripheral areas like Bau Bang - where BCM focuses many of its strategic operations.

VCBS forecast Becamex's 2025 revenue at nearly VND6.06 trillion ($232.4 million), up 16.27% year-on-year, with after-tax profit reaching VND2.47 trillion ($94.73 million), rising 13.9%. For 2026, the respective figures are estimated at VND7.07 trillion and VND 2.92 trillion.

In the stock market, BCM closed Friday at VND59,500 ($2.28) per share.