Petrolimex expects record revenue, profit drop in 2026 amid energy transition pressures

Petrolimex, Vietnam’s largest gasoline retailer, is targeting record revenue in 2026 even as profitability comes under pressure, highlighting the mounting challenges traditional fuel distributors face amid the energy transition and tightening policy environment.

According to documents released ahead of its AGM, the company targets to post consolidated revenue of VND315 trillion ($11.96 billion), up 2% year-on-year and marking the highest level in its history.

However, pre-tax profit is projected to decline 7% to VND3.38 trillion ($128.34 million), reflecting narrowing margins in a sector increasingly exposed to volatile global oil prices and structural demand shifts.

Petrolimex expects total fuel sales volume to reach 19.4 million tons in 2026, up 10% from the previous year. Growth will be supported by ongoing economic expansion and infrastructure development, particularly the rollout of new expressways. In the near term, domestic fuel consumption is still expected to track GDP growth, although early signs of disruption from electric vehicles are beginning to emerge.

The company plans to maintain a 12% cash dividend payout for 2025, equivalent to VND1,200 ($0.05) per share, before lowering the payout ratio to 10% in 2026 as it balances shareholder returns with reinvestment needs.

Looking further ahead, Petrolimex outlined a more challenging outlook through 2030. Fuel demand growth is expected to slow significantly as electrification accelerates and regulatory restrictions on internal combustion engine vehicles tighten, especially in major urban centers.

The pressure is forecast to intensify in 2028-2030, when growth could decelerate to 6-7% annually. By then, the impact of electric vehicles, alternative fuels, and stricter environmental regulations is expected to become more pronounced. Petrolimex warned that traditional fuel sales could stagnate as EV adoption rises, driven by falling vehicle costs and improving charging infrastructure.

Despite these headwinds, the group aims to sustain average annual revenue growth of at least 7% over the 2026-2030 period, broadly in line with projected volume expansion. Profit growth, however, is expected to lag slightly at 6-7% per year, underscoring persistent margin pressure as the industry adapts to a lower-carbon future.

PLX shares closed at VND38,900 ($1.48) each on Monday.