PV Power says profit may fall in 2026 despite higher output due to extreme weather

PV Power (HoSE: POW), a subsidiary of state-owned energy giant Petrovietnam, expects electricity output to rise next year, but says profit may decline from this year’s strong results due to increasingly erratic weather conditions.

At an analyst meeting and site visit held on Thursday at the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG-to-power plants in the southern province of Dong Nai, deputy CEO Truong Viet Phuong said PV Power recorded robust business results in the first nine months of 2025.

Commercial electricity output of PV Power reached 13,476 million kWh in the period, equivalent to 101% of the full-year plan and up 18% from the same period last year.

Net revenue came in at over VND25.4 trillion ($963.16 million), 96% of the year's plan, while post-tax profit surged to VND2.18 trillion ($82.73 million), equivalent to 497% of the full-year target.

PV Power aims to exceed 20 billion kWh in total electricity production this year and will continue maximizing capacity across its power plants through operational and maintenance improvements, Phuong added.

The company is prioritizing the completion of its two key LNG-fired projects, Nhon Trach 3 and 4. Nhon Trach 3 entered commercial operation on November 21, paving the way for accelerated work on Nhon Trach 4.

PV Power is also studying several other LNG-fueled power projects, including Quynh Lap in Nghe An province, Vung Ang 3 in Ha Tinh province, and an expansion of Ca Mau power complex in Ca Mau province, alongside potential investments in small hydropower (below 30 MW), floating solar, waste-to-energy, and wind power.

Shareholders in September approved a plan to raise charter capital from over VND23.4 trillion to nearly VND30.7 trillion ($1.16 billion) to fund the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 projects. The company has submitted the capital increase plan to the State Securities Commission for approval.

Nhon Trach 3 and 4, with a combined capacity of 1,500 MW and investment cost of $1.4 billion, are expected to recover capital within 16 years.

PV Power is working with PV Gas to secure gas supply and price terms to ensure project efficiency. Once fully operational, the units will add about 9 billion kWh annually to the national grid.

Phuong said extreme weather poses a major risk for 2026. “Output may rise, but profit may not match 2025,” he said.

Responding to concerns about competition from cheaper renewable energy, PV Power said gas-fired plants remain essential for grid stability. While Vietnam has nearly 90,000 MW of installed capacity, renewables contribute a far smaller share of actual generation.

For instance, Nhon Trach 1 and 2 plants in 2025 can operate 7,600 hours a year (one year is equivalent to 8,760 hours), compared with 1,600-1,800 hours for renewables, he noted.

Vietnam’s LNG-to-power projects, including Nhon Trach 3 and 4, are expected to support the country’s energy transition and contribute to its net-zero emissions pledge by 2050.

On the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, POW shares closed Thursday at VND15,300 ($0.58) apiece.