USD/VND exchange rate remains elevated

The USD/VND exchange rate remains under pressure as the State Bank of Vietnam on Wednesday raised the daily reference exchange rate to VND25,135 per U.S. dollar.

The level marks the highest reference rate in roughly four months, reflecting persistent exchange-rate management pressures as the U.S. dollar continues to maintain relative strength globally.

At commercial banks, the dollar was commonly sold at around VND26,389-26,391.

On the unofficial market, the “black market” exchange rate traded at around VND26,480-26,530 per dollar.

Analysts said exchange-rate pressure is currently being driven by multiple factors simultaneously.

Globally, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has remained around the 99-point level as investors stay cautious over the possibility that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer than previously expected.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions and shifting global capital flows have continued to support demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Domestically, interbank interest rates remaining elevated at around 6-7% per year indicate that liquidity pressures within Vietnam’s banking system have yet to ease significantly. That has kept demand for U.S. dollars from importers and financial institutions at relatively high levels.

Even so, several analysts believe exchange-rate pressure in 2026 is unlikely to become as severe as during the volatility seen in late 2024.

In a recent report, MBS Securities forecast the USD/VND exchange rate could rise by around 2.5-3% in 2026, significantly lower than during previous periods of sharp fluctuations.

According to MBS, the medium-term weakening trend of the U.S. dollar globally could become an important supporting factor for the Vietnamese dong, especially as interest-rate differentials between the United States and emerging economies gradually narrow.

Similarly, VPBank Securities said it expects the exchange rate to fluctuate by only around 1% this year, supported by positive foreign direct investment inflows, continued export growth and the possibility that the Fed could gradually shift toward monetary easing in the second half of the year.

However, analysts cautioned that risks remain, particularly if the U.S. dollar strengthens again due to persistently high U.S. inflation or delays in Fed rate cuts.

In addition, rising demand for gold imports could place further pressure on Vietnam’s foreign currency supply.

Against the current backdrop, analysts expect the State Bank of Vietnam to continue prioritizing flexible policy management aimed at stabilizing market sentiment, using a combination of exchange-rate tools, interest-rate policy and open-market operations to limit excessive short-term volatility in the USD/VND exchange rate.