Vietnam among world’s fastest growing emerging markets over decade ahead: S&P Global

Vietnam will be among the world’s fastest growing emerging markets over the decade ahead, along with India, Indonesia and Philippines, said S&P Global’s Asia-Pacific chief economist Rajiv Biswas.

Asia-Pacific is a “key driver” for global economic growth not just in the near term, but over the longer run, CNBC quoted Biswas as saying at the annual energy APPEC conference.

“When we look over the next decade, we do expect Asia-Pacific to be the fastest growing region of the world economy,” he said, noting key bright spots include India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

“A massive expansion on the way in the Indian economy, and also a very favorable outlook in Southeast Asia - where we expect pretty strong growth to continue in some of the economies, notably Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, will be among the world’s fastest growing emerging markets over the decade ahead,” said Biswas.

As a region, Asia-Pacific’s growth is expected to strengthen from 3.3% last year to 4.2% this year, according to S&P’s projections. “Over the next decade, we expect that about 55% of the total increase in [the] world’s GDP will come from the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.

Vietnam’s second-quarter GDP growth rose 4.14% from a year ago, faster than the 3.28% recorded in the first quarter.

Previously, S&P Global Ratings had estimated Vietnam’s 2023 economic growth at 6%, citing the nation’s resilience, making it the fastest-expanding economy in the Asia-Pacific region.

“We see the fastest growth at about 6% in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Growth in the region ex-China should pick up to 4.4% in 2024 amid easier monetary conditions and somewhat better global growth,” said S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs in the report “Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Q3 2023: Domestic Demand, Inflation Relief Support Asia’s Outlook.”

The latest HSBC survey found that about 53% of 880 corporate respondents are prioritizing growth in Vietnam over the next two years to capitalize on opportunities as the country has shown impressive economic resilience.

Among respondents who have not yet established operations in Vietnam, 13% plan to enter the country in the next two years. The survey also showed that many companies find Vietnam’s economic resilience an attractive feature. The country’s economy expanded 8% in 2022 as it emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic and benefited greatly from global supply chain diversification.