Vietnam currency likely to remain stable, more or less: analyst

The USD/VND exchange rate is unlikely to undergo major fluctuations in the remaining months of this year, thanks to solid macroeconomic fundamentals, an analyst says.

The current situation is totally different from that at the end of 2022 when there was an obvious capital flight driven by widespread fears of collapse in the banking system following arrests of several businesspeople, says Tran Ngoc Bau, CEO of Ho Chi Minh City-based financial data provider WiGroup.

In a September 2 talk show on the Tai chinh & Kinh doanh (Finance & Business) channel, he noted that no USD outflow was in evidence at the moment.

Bau elaborated that Vietnam’s current account remained strong and the overall balance of payments was expected to record a slight surplus, in contrast to the picture at the end of 2022.

In addition, inbound foreign direct investment was likely to rise this year as Vietnam has succeeded in maintaining its competitive edge. Continued strong dollar supply from remittances will provide additional support to the forex rate, he added.

Bau also pointed out that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) tightening cycle was nearing its end, helping ease pressures on the Vietnamese dong.

In a release late last month, Ngo Dang Khoa, country head of markets and securities services at HSBC Vietnam, reckoned that the recent dong slide would be short-lived and the currency would bounce back against the greenback in the medium and long term.

Analysts at several local securities companies including Viet Dragon and KB Vietnam shared a similar view. They concurred that a “record high” trade surplus, a surge in remittances to Ho Chi Minh City in the first half of 2023, a more balanced supply-demand situation of the dollar, and the impending halt to the Fed’s interest rate increases would help keep the USD/VND rate stable.

KB Securities Vietnam analysts expect the dong to devalue 1-2% against the dollar this year.

The Vietnamese central bank raised the mid-point exchange rate to a record high of VND23,963 per dollar on August 29.

The rate in the inter-bank market reached VND23,950-24,000 at the end of August, marking a 1.2% devaluation of the dong, the steepest decline in the past 10 months.

The U.S. dollar at state-run Vietcombank was quoted at VND23,870-24,240 each for bids and asks last Thursday, before the National Day holiday (Friday-Monday).

BIDV, another state-controlled bank, set it VND23,920-24,220. A similar rate of VND23,904-24,260 was fixed by private lender Techcombank.